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Thursday, January 6, 2011

This Might Be The Day!

OK, first let's look at the numbers as they are at 11:45am.  Oil is down 2 at 88.3, Gold is down 6.1 at 1367 and Silver is down .27 at 28.93.  The Euro is off a little at 1.301 and the Dollar is up, trading at 80.77.  The Long Bond is up a little at 4.53% and the 10 year Note is up a little at 3.42%.  The Dow and the SPX opened soft, then turned up, then turned back down on reports the snow storm slowing retail sales? Humm......Right now, all the major indexes are down, with the exception of the COMPQ, which is up a little.

Now, I am beginning to get excited.  In the last 2  days, our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators have generated a new Buy signal in the US Dollar, a New Sell signal in the Gold and Silver markets, and a confirmation of the Buy signal in the TLT.  I am excited because the set-ups for all three are very strong, including a series of failed auction in the Dollar and in the Bonds.  These are the best set-ups since the buy signals in the equities markets back on 9/1.

I do not yet have sell signals in the DJI or the SPX, or the other long positions, but the SPX momentum has been weak, and with a strengthening dollar, the equity indexes may quickly turn to the downside. But not just yet, but my finger is on the switch.

I do have 3 new trades,  based on the Dollar strength and weakness in the PM's.  The ETF that tracks the Dollar, the UUP is the only safe Dollar trade for us equity guys (commodity traders have much better choices). It can be a slow poke, but it should advance with a Bull move in the Dollar.

In addition, with the weakness in the PM's, I like the leveraged shorts in Silver and in Gold.  The double short Gold is DZZ and the double short Silver is ZSL.

I am watching carefully for changes in momentum in the remaining equity trades.

Best to Your Trading!

Bill

1 comment:

  1. Hey Bill,

    FYI. Your system may very well be pinpointing the beginning of this.

    http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc101213.htm

    Best regards,

    Kenneth

    ReplyDelete