All Most Noon, Tuesday

Equities market this morning is strong, after a mixed opening.  The Dow is up 65 and the SPX up only .65.  The remaining indexes are mixed, with the Q's up a little and the XLF down down almost 1%.  Oil is better after a weak open, trading down .06 at 91.48, while Gold is u[ 8.90 at 1369.4 and Silver is up .59 at 28.91.  The Euro is strong on Improved European output, trading at 1.34.  A close higher could signal the breakout of the move back to the highs of early November.  The Dollar is off, trading at 78.79.  The Dollar is sitting on support levels that if broken could signal a continuation of the decline.  The surprise move is the weakness in the domestic debt market, with the 10 year down 1/2 point at 3.39 while the long Bond is down nearly a point at 4.59%  News that China had reduced US debt holdings by $11 Billion could be a factor.

The fact the major indexes can be so completely mixed, even while the Dow is up 61 points is another indication that there are fewer and fewer engines pulling this equity market up the hill.  We are also coming up again on a period where our timing signals are suggesting a pull back is in order.  Of course, our timing signals have been getting violated on a regular basis since August, but that does not mean that they will never work again.

Late last week we sold the UUP and the TLT.... Momentum had quickly died after the initial Buy and rather than sit and wait for a complete momentum change, we will wait for another opportunity to come along.

The signal in the SPX triggered 12/1 is still in effect.

Best to Your Trading!

Bill