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Monday, January 31, 2011

Monday Morning

After being off most of the weekend in pre-market trading, and after the 166 point decline on Friday, the market opened down slightly and has rallied to plus 35 Dow points as of 11:00am.  The SPX is up 6.43.  Oil is up .13 at 89.47, after trading above $90 most of the weekend.  Gold is off 8.70 at 1332 and Silver is up, trading at 28.04.  The commodity complex is especially strong again today, with wheat up 2.35% and the rest of the basics also higher.  Only sugar is off for the day.  The Euro is again demonstrating unexpected strength, trading at 1.3717, while the Dollar is off, trading at 77.61 after trading above 78 all week end.  The Bond market is soft, with the 10 year off, trading at 3.34% and the long bond trading at 4.552%.

The Big news this morning continues to be the unrest in Egypt, and according to recent reports, the situation continues to deteriorate.  The Personal Income numbers were reported today inline with expectations, most notably the decline in the savings  rate to 5.3%, the lowest since March, 2010.  The Chicago PMI surged to 68.8 on expectations of 64.5.  The most important part was "Princes Paid", with 6o% of reporting business stating that costs had increased.  Margin pressure anyone?

Out of the headlines this weekend, but happening none the less, were worsening problems in Queensland, a new storm heading that way.  One of the comments coming from the PMI was that steel prices were surging.  Any one got any thoughts on the disruption of coal supply and steel prices?  And how about the BDI....it is getting very close to the record low in 08, when prices paid for dry bulk transport was reflecting a nearly non-existent market.

Nothing new to add to the comments last week.. our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators confirmed the Sell signal generate on 1/20. It is likely that a bounce will work off some the oversold condition that exists after the hard down move Friday.   But we expect the decline to resume.

Best To Your Trading!

Bill

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