The domestic markets are closed today, as are the Schools, Banks, and Government offices. The World markets are mostly down less than 1%, with the exception of China, where the equity market is down over 3.5%. Oil, Gold, Silver and the Euro are all down small, while the Dollar is up a little. Bonds are flat in offshore trading.
The big news is that Steve Jobs has taken a medical leave-of-absence, although he remains the Chairman. Apple shares trading in Europe are off around $30, down nearly 10%. Zerohedge has a story reminding us that AAPL represents nearly 20% of the NASDAQ, and of the fact that 200 hedge funds own AAPL, with the smallest position equaling $133,000,000. I wonder which one will attempt to be the first one out the door........I bet it will be a crowded doorway.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators have maintained the Buy recommendation generated on 12/1/2010, and that is still in effect. The indicator has moved 2 time into the neutral zone, but has not yet moved to a Sell signal. Yet Mr market continues to build powerful negative divergences in RSI, MACD, 10 day SMA in the advance/decline indicator, percentage of stocks above 50 and 200 day MA's, McClellan ratio and the McClellan Sentiment indicators, the NYSE NewHigh/New Low ratio and NASDAQ New High/New Low ratio, the Parker Sentiment ratio, the New High minus New Lows index, and what appear to be historic levels in the Put/Call ratio. I am sure I have missed a couple more. Some of these divergences go back to 4/2010, several are from 7/2010 and most are at least from 9/2010.
There is another indicator that I am watching for a divergence. An indicator that has set up prior to every significant decline this year, that is not yet present. When we see that divergence, then it will be time to unload Mr Market long and position that trading account on the short side. And let's not forget that we are in a Secular Bear Market, so any lingering investor long positions must remember that any top we see may well turn out to be THE top.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
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