The stop loss prices have been tightened.... please make any changes if you used my initial stop loss prices first posted this morning. I used prices that were away from the market as I was entering trades, now that positions are established, use the new stop loss prices.
So far this feels a little like a "Dead Cat Bounce", and that may turn out to be how the day ends. If so, I will likely get stopped out by the close with small losses. But if this TA stuff works, we should find ourselves with a nice little rally off these lows that could last a few days and earn some huzzaa's.
Mr Market open soft, trading down about 22 Dow points after the open. It has bounced around "unchanged" mark now for the past 1 1/2 hours, with the major indexes mixed. The best performer has been the Transports, trading up 0.5% at 5308.56. I see support in the issues I traded this morning right at these levels, meaning that we are in a place where these stocks should rally after the big hit yesterday. If Mr Market decides he wants to trade lower, we do not have much exposure.
Oil is mostly unchanged at 100.27, while Brent is 0.75% higher at 115.38. Gold is off 7.5 at 1535.10
and Silver is off nearly 3% at 36.61. Copper is also off 1% at 4.065. The Euro continues its unbelievable advance, up nearly 1% at 1.443, while the Dollar is again weak, off 15 ticks at 74.53. Bonds are taking a breath, trading lower this morning after the big rally of the past 2 days. The Note is off 3/8 at 2.986% and the Bond is off 1 at 4.206%.
The big Eco today was the 8:30am New Jobless Claims, printing 422.000 on expectations as 417,000 and another disappointment for the Green Shoots guys. On the other hand, it was jobless claims and no net-new-jobs last August that prompted the Fed to start the rumor mill buzzing about QE3. This weeks Eco re: jobs may be just what the Fed needs to sell another round of stimulus. The financial press is full of stories about the likely hood, or not, of another round of QE, but I am reading that the Fed may see the need for further support for the weakening economy, but also feel constrained by a lack of public support for such a program. And of course, the Congress would scream bloody murder. So speculation is centering on a Fed proposal to again target interest rates by becoming the "Best Bid" for U.S. Treasuries in the 10 year range. The thought being that the 10 year rate drives many other rate sensitive products, and a lower rate would hopefully help mortgages and bank lending. Of course the net result would mean additional dollars in the hands of the TBTF banks which would continue to pad reserves and continue the river of cheap money to the money center banks.
(in case you have missed it, the money center banks have traditionally been "short" treasuries, using the low cost cash generated to bulk up reserves. With 10 year paper only costing them around 2.5% per year... the cost to carry the short,,,,,they can continue to play to "heads I win, tails you lose" game with Federal money.)
As I have been writing, I see that Mr Market is taking some hits to the bid... It may be that the market wants to go lower. This is why stop loss orders are so important.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
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