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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

I have a Position.. .It's Called Cash!

Live by the signals, die by the signals.  I wish I had been on the right side of the decline, but then again, I was not on the wrong side of the decline.  Which is what a disciplined stop loss strategy does for a trader.  I am ready for the next signal, which I have indicated is likely to be a Buy signal, and it is getting near.

After the European market performed well this morning, we had the over night SPX trade up nearly 1%, opening around 1270.  As this is written at 11:00am, the SPX is trading up 16.30 at 1288.04 and the Dow is up 130.00 at 12083.18.  The rest of the major indexes are also higher, with the transports leading the way, up 1.70% at 5158.86 and the IWM (Russell) up 2.07 at 79.39.

Oil is up 75 cents at 98.05 and Brent is up 1.07 at 120.17.  Gold is up 7.60 at 1523.20 and Silver is also higher at 35.18. Copper is leading the way in the metals, up 2.17% at 4.14  The Food commodities are mixed.

The Euro is higher about 0.50% at 1.447 as the Dollar again gives up some ground, trading at 74.29.  The Bond Market has softened, with the Note down 5/8 at and back above 3%, trading 3.06.  The Bond is also weak, trading down over 1% at 4.26.

Retail sales were reported this morning slightly better than expected, at .-0.2 on expectations of -0.5.  The PPI came in higher at 0.2 on expectations of 0.1, however annualized, the PPI is at 7.3.  I guess a case could be made the lower sales, and higher inflation is a good thing.. and least in the mind of the Inflation-Chief -in -Charge.  He will certainly point to this print as proof that the Fed policies of QE2 are working...... The public maybe not so much.

Financial reports out of Europe continue to deteriorate, and the Powers That Be are again in emergency meetings to decide what to do next.  Now that it is clear to all that Restructuring (or Credit Event as the Rating agencies like to call it) is no longer a matter of if.. it is only when that is confusing.  But it is looking more and more that the "Credit Event" is likely sooner rather than later.

Nothing new on the Proprietary Momentum Change signals.... but I am seeing movement toward a new Buy signal coming shortly is this market can keep to the plus side today.

Best To Your Trading.

Bill

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