This morning, the BLS reported the New Jobless Claims to be 427,000 and missing the estimate of 419,000. This after the report last week of 422,000 was revised higher to 426,000. Another 52,000 unemployed workers fell off the 99 week Extended Benefit rolls, thus again reducing the numerator when the Unemployment rate is calculated...... Guess what? The Unemployment percentage will again show improvement because fewer people are unemployed. No kidding. 52,000 are no longer counted as unemployed.
Wholesale Inventories were also reported this morning, printing 0.8% on expectations of 1.0% and a revised 1.3% last month. The inventory accumulation number that is so helpful in calculating GDP is becoming less and less reliable as Inventories reach record levels. Does anyone remember the good days when the business cycle could be measured by the ebb and flow of inventories, and what we used to call a recession was widely recognized as an inventory correction? Too much stuff for sale at prices consumers were willing to pay? Huuuummm?
Oil is higher this morning, up .74 at 101.47 and Brent is also higher, trading at 118.13. Gold is up a couple of ticks at 1539.10, and Silver is up nearly 2% at 37.28. Copper is soft, trading down 0..5% at 4.08. The Food commodities are mostly higher, with Corn making new record highs at 778.74 Cotton is also strong, up nearly 2% at 148.74.
The Euro has been giving up some of its recent gains, trading at 1.451 while the Yen continues around trading near it recent high at 80.18. The Dollar has again today traded higher, back again over 74 at 71.18. The Note has given up a little of its recent gains, trading at 2.95% and while the Bond continues its rally, trading at 4.18%.
The big news of the day is that after 6 straight days of trading lower, the equity markets are in rally mode, with the Dow up 90 points and the SPX up 9.39, both of the indexes trading up 0.75%. All of the rest of the equity indexes are higher, with the Transports leading the way, up 1%.
The Momentum Change indicators are moving once again toward to new signal, with the correlated asset classes also falling into line. Just like they did 2 weeks ago. But if you can't trust your indicators, who can you trust? One more thought.. the PM are again weakening, and GLD is moving toward a sell signal. Don't forget those stop loss orders if you are long the Gold or Silver. Or both.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
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