Mr Market has opened strong this morning, after trading higher overnight. Oil is off .28 at 91.91, Gold is off .20 at 1333.6 and Silver is up .086 at 28.255. The rest of the commodity complex is mostly higher, with wheat being the only donwn tick. The Euro is slightly higer at 1.3762, while the Dollar is off, trading at 77.37. The 10 year Note is off 5/8 at 3.453%, while the long Bond is down nearly a point a 4.63%.
The Dow is trading up 0.72% at 11977.53 and the SPX is trading up 1.06% at 1299.59. Both indexes are flirting with the highs of last week, while they are trading against the trend resistance lines and a double top. Other indexes are also trading about 1% higher but are still below last weeks highs.
Economic news this morning is mixed, with the best news being that the ISM has printed higher at 60.8 against expectations of 58.0, but digging through the sub-paragraphs, we learn that Prices Paid have surged to 81.5 vs expectations of 73.5 This continues to flash the RED Warning sign that all is not well with earnings expectations for 2nd and 3rd quarter earnings. It is hard to make earnings targets when pricing leverage is 0 while margins are getting crushed.
The crowds continue to grow in Egypt and Jordan has installed new government and Prime Minister. It appears the unrest in the Middle East continues to roll across the area as food inflation climbs to new highs. Rice yesterday closed limit up as the US rice crop is expected to decline to 1989 levels. I guess it really true that hungry people get mad.
No change to our Momentum Change signals.....indicators are still solidly in Sell mode. If we get new highs today in the SPX and DOW, it will not trigger new momentum change signal.. but that event could trigger our Stop Loss orders in some of the levered short positions. If that does happen, we will wait for another opportunity to re-enter the market.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
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