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Monday, February 14, 2011

Monday Morning.

Good Morning all.. this is going to be a big week.  Reading my mail this week end, I am being told that this is the week that marks the end of the March, 09 Rally and begins the decline that has been so long delayed.  We have Hindenburg Omens, Bradley Model Turn dates, Raising Bearish Wedgies, err, Wedges. Tech Failures, Over Bought Stochastics, Negative Divergences as far as the eye can see, Phi Mate Turn dates, Valentines Day (just checking to see if you are paying attention) Major Market Top setups and Trend Line Resistance in the major indexes and cycle tops too numerous to mention.

It is all good!. I am waiting for my Proprietary Momentum Change indicators to confirm the Sell signal first generated 1/20 and confirmed on 1/28.  Mr Market has powered through those turn signals, and we got stopped out of the positions entered 1/20.   I have been reluctant to enter new positions until I get a confirmation of the Sell signal.  I am watching carefully today... .but the early action does not look like I will get that confirmation today.

The market timing tools that I have used successfully in past are also looking for some kind of market  top this week, But those tools have been a little dull the past 2 occasions I have used them.  Mr Market has seemed to be dancing to a musical score my tools can't cut.  (is that a mixed metaphor?)  So I am anxiously awaiting a Sell confirmation.. I will certainly miss a couple of points at the top, but if the market does begin to roll over this week, I guarantee that we will see it and be able to catch it nearly at the top.  Or not......but if the continues higher after we get a second confirmation, we will also have stop loss order recommendations to prevent any substantial loss.

Not much actual news this week end, now that all is hunky dory in Egypt.  No Sovereign Debt crashes.....just some whispers again that commodity price increases in things like Corn, Copper, Rice and Rubber are about to have an impact on Corporate Profit Margins.  Oil is up a couple of ticks at 85.71, Gold is up, trading at 1364.5 and Silver is up, trading at 30.40.  The Euro continues to correct, trading down at 1.3473, while the Dollar continues its rally at 78.66.  Our Momentum Change indicators generated a Buy signal in the Dollar last Thursday... but this is a very volatile market and we have had some whipsaws in the recent past.

The Bond market continues to find bidders, with the 10 Year Note up 5/8 at 3.619% and the Long Bond is up 1/2 at 4.659%.  With the Dollar, Bonds and the VIX all trading higher this morning, maybe we really are seeing the beginning of the "Risk Off" trade.  The Market opened flat, and at 11:00am, the SPX is off 0.14% at 1327.22, the  Dow is off 0.30% at 12237.86, the Transports are off 0.46% at 5210.42, while the RUT is up 0.17%, the NDX is up 3.10% at 2381.99 and the XLF is off 0.33% at 17.03.

I will let you know if I get a Sell confirmation intra day.

Best To Your Trading!

Bill

2 comments:

  1. Bill,

    "...It is all good!. I am waiting for my Proprietary Momentum Change indicators to confirm the Sell signal first generated 1/20 and confirmed on 1/28...."

    Like they say, "Ain't that the truth?"

    I am confident the tools we use will navigate this uncharted terrritory successfully.

    Kenneth

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  2. Kenneth

    Thanks for your support.....I would just love to make a "TOP" call.. but wisdom forces me to wait until the Momentum Change signals give me an action point. I have 2 Sell signals recently Jan 20 and 28, but really no follow through on the down side. Yet, Momentum has not turned positive.... I am waiting for another Sell confirmation to put on some Sell side positions.

    I have a response to your private email to send shortly.

    Bill

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