I am changing the lay out for tracking Momentum Changes and trading ideas. The primary Momentum Change signals will continue in the current, along with the 12 month history.
The trading ideas will be moved to a new section called, surprisingly, Trading Ideas. These changes should be available this afternoon.
Bill
Monday, January 31, 2011
Monday Morning
After being off most of the weekend in pre-market trading, and after the 166 point decline on Friday, the market opened down slightly and has rallied to plus 35 Dow points as of 11:00am. The SPX is up 6.43. Oil is up .13 at 89.47, after trading above $90 most of the weekend. Gold is off 8.70 at 1332 and Silver is up, trading at 28.04. The commodity complex is especially strong again today, with wheat up 2.35% and the rest of the basics also higher. Only sugar is off for the day. The Euro is again demonstrating unexpected strength, trading at 1.3717, while the Dollar is off, trading at 77.61 after trading above 78 all week end. The Bond market is soft, with the 10 year off, trading at 3.34% and the long bond trading at 4.552%.
The Big news this morning continues to be the unrest in Egypt, and according to recent reports, the situation continues to deteriorate. The Personal Income numbers were reported today inline with expectations, most notably the decline in the savings rate to 5.3%, the lowest since March, 2010. The Chicago PMI surged to 68.8 on expectations of 64.5. The most important part was "Princes Paid", with 6o% of reporting business stating that costs had increased. Margin pressure anyone?
Out of the headlines this weekend, but happening none the less, were worsening problems in Queensland, a new storm heading that way. One of the comments coming from the PMI was that steel prices were surging. Any one got any thoughts on the disruption of coal supply and steel prices? And how about the BDI....it is getting very close to the record low in 08, when prices paid for dry bulk transport was reflecting a nearly non-existent market.
Nothing new to add to the comments last week.. our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators confirmed the Sell signal generate on 1/20. It is likely that a bounce will work off some the oversold condition that exists after the hard down move Friday. But we expect the decline to resume.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
The Big news this morning continues to be the unrest in Egypt, and according to recent reports, the situation continues to deteriorate. The Personal Income numbers were reported today inline with expectations, most notably the decline in the savings rate to 5.3%, the lowest since March, 2010. The Chicago PMI surged to 68.8 on expectations of 64.5. The most important part was "Princes Paid", with 6o% of reporting business stating that costs had increased. Margin pressure anyone?
Out of the headlines this weekend, but happening none the less, were worsening problems in Queensland, a new storm heading that way. One of the comments coming from the PMI was that steel prices were surging. Any one got any thoughts on the disruption of coal supply and steel prices? And how about the BDI....it is getting very close to the record low in 08, when prices paid for dry bulk transport was reflecting a nearly non-existent market.
Nothing new to add to the comments last week.. our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators confirmed the Sell signal generate on 1/20. It is likely that a bounce will work off some the oversold condition that exists after the hard down move Friday. But we expect the decline to resume.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Friday, January 28, 2011
Trading Alert
The Dow is off 125 points, down 1.02%, and the SPX is off 16.53, down 1.27%. The other major indexes are also off similar percentages. Intra day trading we have confirmation Sell signals in the SPX, RUT, XLF and COMP. (I don't use the DOW... it is too narrow)
We are re-entering the QID levered short trade in the Q's. Our new purchase price is 10.94, with a stop at 10.45.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
We are re-entering the QID levered short trade in the Q's. Our new purchase price is 10.94, with a stop at 10.45.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
TGIF Morning
Lots of news this morning, riots in the middle East, GDP prints lower than expectations, Portuguese and Spanish Bonds are back to their all time high yields, Consumer Confidence in the UK plunges, and the new Orange County Mayor has fired the old administration holdovers. I am not sure which big story is driving the market, but I like where it is finally headed.
Mr Market is down across all indexes, with the Dow off 78 at 11911, the SPX down 11.64 at 1288, and the other indexes all trading lower. The Oil market is higher on concerns in Egypt that the Suez Canal may suffer some interruptions, trading up 1.40 at 87.04, Gold is higher, trading up 3.10 at 1321.5 and Silver is trading higher at 27.34. The commodity complex is trading higher, with the exception of Wheat which is lower. The Euro is off 10 ticks at 1.363 and the Dollar is higher a few ticks at 77.97. The bond market is little improved, with the 10 year up 11 ticks at 3.37% and the Long Bond flat at 4.56%
Our QQQQ short got stopped out yesterday at 57.26, for a loss of $1.39. The QID levered long was also stopped out at 10.75 with a $0.26 loss.
We will be waiting for the Proprietary Momentum Change indicators to confirm a the Sell signal and we will replace the trades. As we have been pointing out for some time, nearly all internal measures of internal strength have continued to deteriorate and this pull back that looks to have finally started may have some legs.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Mr Market is down across all indexes, with the Dow off 78 at 11911, the SPX down 11.64 at 1288, and the other indexes all trading lower. The Oil market is higher on concerns in Egypt that the Suez Canal may suffer some interruptions, trading up 1.40 at 87.04, Gold is higher, trading up 3.10 at 1321.5 and Silver is trading higher at 27.34. The commodity complex is trading higher, with the exception of Wheat which is lower. The Euro is off 10 ticks at 1.363 and the Dollar is higher a few ticks at 77.97. The bond market is little improved, with the 10 year up 11 ticks at 3.37% and the Long Bond flat at 4.56%
Our QQQQ short got stopped out yesterday at 57.26, for a loss of $1.39. The QID levered long was also stopped out at 10.75 with a $0.26 loss.
We will be waiting for the Proprietary Momentum Change indicators to confirm a the Sell signal and we will replace the trades. As we have been pointing out for some time, nearly all internal measures of internal strength have continued to deteriorate and this pull back that looks to have finally started may have some legs.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Thursday Afternoon
Well, Hello!
Mr Market kinda finds himself in a box this afternoon........which way is he going to go to get out of the box?
The Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators still suggest that Mr Market wants to go down. The MACD and the RSI, among numerous other indicators suggest that Mr Market has been advancing without the supporting cast necessary to continue to continue this play. Unless this conundrum gets resolved this afternoon, it will most certainly be resolved tomorrow.
Best To Your Trading.!
Bill
Mr Market kinda finds himself in a box this afternoon........which way is he going to go to get out of the box?
The Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators still suggest that Mr Market wants to go down. The MACD and the RSI, among numerous other indicators suggest that Mr Market has been advancing without the supporting cast necessary to continue to continue this play. Unless this conundrum gets resolved this afternoon, it will most certainly be resolved tomorrow.
Best To Your Trading.!
Bill
Thursday Morning
Mr Market is trying to work higher this morning, with the Dow at 11012, up 0.23%, and the SPX at 1299.11, up 0.20%. The rest of the major indexes are also higher. Oil is up .18 at 87.15, Gold up 1.10 at 1334.1 and Silver up .49 at 27.61. The rest of the commodity complex is mixed. The Euro is up a few at 1.373 and the Dollar is down at 77.75. The 10 year Note is down .25 at 3.344% and the long Bond is down at 4.61%
The BS, er I mean the BLS report is out this morning, printing at 454,000 new jobless applications, against expectations of 405,000. Non SA prints at 482,399, with 161.913 people dropping off the extended list. The FCIC report on the Financial Crises is due out today, but some of the interesting points are already leaked. The 500 page report discloses, from ZeroHedge.com "that all of Wall Street is one big fat fraud, populated by criminals, who never go to jail, and whose settlement arrangements with the SEC is at most 1/50th of the illegally obtained profits."
New Home Sales spiked 17.5% in December, against expectations of 3.5%. All regions of the country were flat, with the exception of the West, where sales were up 70% at 7,000 units. So, an increase of 4,000 new home sales drove a national increase of 17.5% Don't you just love the guy behind the curtain?
Mr Market is at a very critical point here.. a break of the SPX under 1290 will likely trigger the decline our momentum Change indicators are looking for, while a close above 1303 will likely trigger us getting stopped out of our levered short positions.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
The BS, er I mean the BLS report is out this morning, printing at 454,000 new jobless applications, against expectations of 405,000. Non SA prints at 482,399, with 161.913 people dropping off the extended list. The FCIC report on the Financial Crises is due out today, but some of the interesting points are already leaked. The 500 page report discloses, from ZeroHedge.com "that all of Wall Street is one big fat fraud, populated by criminals, who never go to jail, and whose settlement arrangements with the SEC is at most 1/50th of the illegally obtained profits."
New Home Sales spiked 17.5% in December, against expectations of 3.5%. All regions of the country were flat, with the exception of the West, where sales were up 70% at 7,000 units. So, an increase of 4,000 new home sales drove a national increase of 17.5% Don't you just love the guy behind the curtain?
Mr Market is at a very critical point here.. a break of the SPX under 1290 will likely trigger the decline our momentum Change indicators are looking for, while a close above 1303 will likely trigger us getting stopped out of our levered short positions.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Wed, After the Close
Trading day is a little different, yet it remains the same. POMO days - Mr Market is up. In a reverse from the past couple of trading days, the Trannies and the RUT, the SPX and the COMP were stronger than the Dow. Dow close up 8.25, or 0.07%, yet the SPX was up 5.45 or 0.42%, the Trannies up 56.10 or 1.10%, the RUT up 13.71 or 1.76% and the COMP us 20.20 or 0.74%..
The news of consequence, at least in my opinion, was the January FOMC minutes, and they did not report anything unexpected. The economy is still too weak to operate without Fed intervention, the unemployment rate is still unacceptable, and the consumer is still not spending like they should. Therefore, the Fed will continue to keep ZIRP policy in place, and will continue to purchase debt from the PD's, using the nearly daily POMO actions. And therefore, the commodity complex will continue to improve in value, asset values should continue to improve, and inflation is still in check because they say it is.
Therefore, Mr Market interprets this all to be good news and heads higher, with the Dow flirting with 12,000 and the SPX romancing 1300.
It's all good!
We got stopped out of the SPY short at 129.65, losing 2.25 points. The Sell signal generated last week are still in effect, and the remaining positions are still active, until the market declines or we get stopped out.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
The news of consequence, at least in my opinion, was the January FOMC minutes, and they did not report anything unexpected. The economy is still too weak to operate without Fed intervention, the unemployment rate is still unacceptable, and the consumer is still not spending like they should. Therefore, the Fed will continue to keep ZIRP policy in place, and will continue to purchase debt from the PD's, using the nearly daily POMO actions. And therefore, the commodity complex will continue to improve in value, asset values should continue to improve, and inflation is still in check because they say it is.
Therefore, Mr Market interprets this all to be good news and heads higher, with the Dow flirting with 12,000 and the SPX romancing 1300.
It's all good!
We got stopped out of the SPY short at 129.65, losing 2.25 points. The Sell signal generated last week are still in effect, and the remaining positions are still active, until the market declines or we get stopped out.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Wed Morning
Mr Market has opened mixed, and very reluctant to make any commitment. Maybe trying to refocus after the SOTU that totally removed 1 and 1/2 hours of NCIS and what ever was to follow. The Dow is off 8, down 0.04%, SPX is off 1.42, down 0.11%, Trannies up 6.87, up 0.13%, RUT up 6.76, up 0.13%, the COMP up 0.26, up 0.02% and the XLF is completely flat. The commodity complex is generally trading higher, with Oil up 0.19 at 86.38, Gold off 2.10 at 1330.2 and Silver off 0.02 at 26.79. The Euro is down a couple of ticks at 1.366 and the Dollar is also off a few ticks at 77.88. The 10 year is trading down 3/8 at 3.38% and the long Bond is off 1/2 at 4.52%.
We will experience another POMO this morning, which should turn the market generally higher, as history has shown us that when free money is available to the PD's, they use a lot of it to buy IBM, MMM, AAPL to force the indexes higher. Yesterday, at 3:45pm, algos trading less than 20,000 shares moved IBM 3% higher at the close, forcing a green tick on the Dow.
When I started typing, the Dow was off 8, 15 minutes later the Dow is up 27. It is amazing what a little grease in algos can do.
The Momentum Change Sell signals generated last week are still in effect.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
We will experience another POMO this morning, which should turn the market generally higher, as history has shown us that when free money is available to the PD's, they use a lot of it to buy IBM, MMM, AAPL to force the indexes higher. Yesterday, at 3:45pm, algos trading less than 20,000 shares moved IBM 3% higher at the close, forcing a green tick on the Dow.
When I started typing, the Dow was off 8, 15 minutes later the Dow is up 27. It is amazing what a little grease in algos can do.
The Momentum Change Sell signals generated last week are still in effect.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Tuesday Afternoon
The commodity complex, with the exception of wheat and lean hogs are down across the board, with Oil off 1.51 at 86.36 and Gold of 17. The debt markets are rallying, with the 10 year now up 5/8 at 3.32% and the Bond up 1 1/4 at 4.47% All the major equity indexes are off, with the Dow off 75, the SPX off 8.85 the RUT off 5.88 and the COMPQ off 17.34. And Trannies are leading the way, off 0.90% at 5032.10.
Here is a chart of the Silver/Gold ratio, which has done a pretty good job of leading the equities market.
With another down day tomorrow, we will move our stop loss prices to protect profits.
An interesting post at Of Two Minds by Charles Hughes Smith, on the "Kubbler -Ross Model-Denial, Acceptance and Self-Renewal in America". It is really a drag when one begins to see that what has to change is us.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Here is a chart of the Silver/Gold ratio, which has done a pretty good job of leading the equities market.
With another down day tomorrow, we will move our stop loss prices to protect profits.
An interesting post at Of Two Minds by Charles Hughes Smith, on the "Kubbler -Ross Model-Denial, Acceptance and Self-Renewal in America". It is really a drag when one begins to see that what has to change is us.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Jeronimo!
I am reminded of one of my childhood exclamations, shouted as I was about to jump off the roof..... "Jeronimo!" Also, I am reminded of a metaphor offered by the old time floor brokers when they were expecting a market dive.... they would "take it off the high board". And so it seems today.
Mr Market has opened down this morning, after be off all night in after hours trading. The Dow is off 40 at 11940, the SPX is off 4 at 1286.78 and all other major indexes are also off. The commodity complex is also running away from the risk trade, with Gold off 20 at 1324.5, Silver off 0.61 at 26.7 and Oil off 1.11 at 86.76, The rest of the commodity complex is all off. The Euro is off a few ticks at 1.363, while the Dollar is trading higher at 78.19, after trading below 78 overnight. The 10 year Note is higher at 3.40% and the Bond is flat at 4.56%.
The market internals continue to deteriorate, even with the big rally yesterday. The Momentum Change Sell signals are still in effect, and the rally yesterday did not trigger any of our stops. It does look like the fuse has been lit that leads to the equity market explosion....... the only question regards how long the fuse is.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Mr Market has opened down this morning, after be off all night in after hours trading. The Dow is off 40 at 11940, the SPX is off 4 at 1286.78 and all other major indexes are also off. The commodity complex is also running away from the risk trade, with Gold off 20 at 1324.5, Silver off 0.61 at 26.7 and Oil off 1.11 at 86.76, The rest of the commodity complex is all off. The Euro is off a few ticks at 1.363, while the Dollar is trading higher at 78.19, after trading below 78 overnight. The 10 year Note is higher at 3.40% and the Bond is flat at 4.56%.
The market internals continue to deteriorate, even with the big rally yesterday. The Momentum Change Sell signals are still in effect, and the rally yesterday did not trigger any of our stops. It does look like the fuse has been lit that leads to the equity market explosion....... the only question regards how long the fuse is.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Monday, January 24, 2011
If This Was Easy.........
In another replay of the Low Volume, Big Move Up play book, the Dow is again up 100 points, or .85%, while the SPX is up .58%, the RUT is up .94%, the Trannies up .50% and the COMPQ is up 1.03%. As my old friend and office manager, Captain Gatorbait, used to say, "if this was easy, we'd have 3rd graders in knee socks doing it".
I have looked around for the last 30 minutes, trying to find a reason for this move today, and I really don't see one. Oh, wait!. $9 billion in new money, a result of the Fed's almost daily monetization of the national debt. This time with the re-purchase of the just auctioned 2.75% due 12/31/2017 note that made up over half of this current POMO. All those new dollars looking for a home... .. and none it is going to go into new equipment or new plants or anything useful like that. Nooooo... it will go into new purchases of AAPL
The Momentum Change signals issued last week are still in effect..... until we either get lower prices in the Q's and the RUT and the SPY, or we get stopped out.
Sigh.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
I have looked around for the last 30 minutes, trying to find a reason for this move today, and I really don't see one. Oh, wait!. $9 billion in new money, a result of the Fed's almost daily monetization of the national debt. This time with the re-purchase of the just auctioned 2.75% due 12/31/2017 note that made up over half of this current POMO. All those new dollars looking for a home... .. and none it is going to go into new equipment or new plants or anything useful like that. Nooooo... it will go into new purchases of AAPL
The Momentum Change signals issued last week are still in effect..... until we either get lower prices in the Q's and the RUT and the SPY, or we get stopped out.
Sigh.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Monday Morning
Mr Market is trying to wake up this morning, with the Dow up 23 points, the SPX flat, and the DJT, the RUT, the COMPQ, and the XLF all down a little. The Commodity complex is mixed, with Oil down .91 at 88.2, Gold up 3.0 at 1344 and Silver down a little at 27.25. The Euro is up a couple of ticks at 1.364 while the Dollar is also up a couple of ticks at 78.27. The 10 year Note is up 10 ticks at 3.40% and the long Bond is up 1/4 point at 4.55%.
There is a growing realization in the financial press that the Congress may actually be looking for ways to help the States eliminate or somehow change their structural problems with their debt structure. Foremost on the States "To Do" list is help in changing their Pension obligations and changing or breaking their Union contracts. This has the makings of a new, and different kind of cultural war.
As we reported last week, the Proprietary Momentum Change indicators have generated new Sell signals in many market sectors.. the SPX, the DJT, the COMPQ, the RUT and the XLF. Mr Market can and often does what ever it wants to do, even change its mind. That is why it is important to have stop loss orders GTC back of every position.
This week could be a very exciting experience for us short term traders.. .In addition to our Momentum Change signals, there are warning signs in the VIX that volatility may be returning to the markets, Bullish sentiment is locked in historic levels, and many indexes are trading at or have broken trend support lines.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
There is a growing realization in the financial press that the Congress may actually be looking for ways to help the States eliminate or somehow change their structural problems with their debt structure. Foremost on the States "To Do" list is help in changing their Pension obligations and changing or breaking their Union contracts. This has the makings of a new, and different kind of cultural war.
As we reported last week, the Proprietary Momentum Change indicators have generated new Sell signals in many market sectors.. the SPX, the DJT, the COMPQ, the RUT and the XLF. Mr Market can and often does what ever it wants to do, even change its mind. That is why it is important to have stop loss orders GTC back of every position.
This week could be a very exciting experience for us short term traders.. .In addition to our Momentum Change signals, there are warning signs in the VIX that volatility may be returning to the markets, Bullish sentiment is locked in historic levels, and many indexes are trading at or have broken trend support lines.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Friday, January 21, 2011
Friday Afternoon
The Dow is up 48 and the SPX is up 4 and the XLF is up 0.12, while the Tranny's and the Q's are down and the IWM is down 2.4 This is what is called a confused market.
The sell signal generated Wed and Thursday are still in effect, and a new intermediate Sell signal was generated after the close last night.
There is an interesting story at Zerohedge this afternoon that is highlighting the liquidity concerns in China. For those of you with long memories, it was liquidity concerns that triggered the financial collapse domestically, and of course internationally. Mr Market is shrugging this information off at this time, but my guess is that this rally today has started too early and is likely to weaken into the close.
Don't forget to get your stops entered.. This not a market the get trapped on the wrong side.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
The sell signal generated Wed and Thursday are still in effect, and a new intermediate Sell signal was generated after the close last night.
There is an interesting story at Zerohedge this afternoon that is highlighting the liquidity concerns in China. For those of you with long memories, it was liquidity concerns that triggered the financial collapse domestically, and of course internationally. Mr Market is shrugging this information off at this time, but my guess is that this rally today has started too early and is likely to weaken into the close.
Don't forget to get your stops entered.. This not a market the get trapped on the wrong side.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
TGIF Morning
First Call has the Dow up 44 and SPX up 7.39. Oil is trading higher at 89.61, while Gold is trading down at 1343.7 and Silver is trading down 27.32. The commodity complex is mixed this morning. The Euro is trading higher at 1.355 while the Dollar is down again this morning at 78.38.
There are no big reports today.. .. just another series of what continues to be good earnings reports. If found the speculation yesterday regarding pressure that the Congress is receiving from State government lobbyists to help them with new rules that could allow the States to file Bankruptcy, which they are currently prohibited from doing. It seems there is growing understanding that a good bit of the financial problems that many State governments are facing are structural and for some the relief may be similar to what GM experienced. A complete restructuring of the Pension debt that is generally recognized to by most to be unsustainable. GM used their bankruptcy to default labor agreements and change pension and other retirement benefits of retired and retiring employees. Should be lots of fireworks this year if Meredith Whitney is anywhere close to correct in her outlook for State and Municipal fiances.
I have added stop loss points to the trade recommendations made yesterday with the new Momentum Change Sell signals. These are considered short term signals, valid until the next change in Momentum occurs. After the closing data was reported, one of our most reliable intermediate indicators also signaled a new Sell signal.
This should be in interesting day.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
There are no big reports today.. .. just another series of what continues to be good earnings reports. If found the speculation yesterday regarding pressure that the Congress is receiving from State government lobbyists to help them with new rules that could allow the States to file Bankruptcy, which they are currently prohibited from doing. It seems there is growing understanding that a good bit of the financial problems that many State governments are facing are structural and for some the relief may be similar to what GM experienced. A complete restructuring of the Pension debt that is generally recognized to by most to be unsustainable. GM used their bankruptcy to default labor agreements and change pension and other retirement benefits of retired and retiring employees. Should be lots of fireworks this year if Meredith Whitney is anywhere close to correct in her outlook for State and Municipal fiances.
I have added stop loss points to the trade recommendations made yesterday with the new Momentum Change Sell signals. These are considered short term signals, valid until the next change in Momentum occurs. After the closing data was reported, one of our most reliable intermediate indicators also signaled a new Sell signal.
This should be in interesting day.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Thursday 11:00am.. Trading Alert
The Dow is off 68 and the SPX is off 9.05 and the rally off the morning lows has evaporated.. Mr Market is now falling as this is written, off 20 Dow points in 10 minutes.
Our Momentum Changes now have been generated in the COMPQ and in the SPX.
We have posted our new recommendations, which include the following:
Short SPY at 127.40
Short QQQQ at 55.87
Buy QID at 11.00
Buy FAZ at 8.80
Buy TZA at 15.82
Buy TWM at 12.69
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Our Momentum Changes now have been generated in the COMPQ and in the SPX.
We have posted our new recommendations, which include the following:
Short SPY at 127.40
Short QQQQ at 55.87
Buy QID at 11.00
Buy FAZ at 8.80
Buy TZA at 15.82
Buy TWM at 12.69
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Thursday Morning.. A New Beginning
Well, Mr Market seems to have decided to move in another direction for a while. Who knows for how long? Lets just enjoy the trip.
The Dow is off 30 and the SPX is off 3.25, a trading a little better than the first call. All the major indexes are off except the XLF. I don't have a Green arrow in any of the commodity complex, with the Oil down hard, off 2.06 at 88.80, Gold down hard, off 22.70 at 1347.5, Silver down 0.97 at 27.85. The Euro is off a little at 1.345 and the Dollar is up a little at 78.86. The 10 year Note is off 3/8 at 3.39 and the long Bond is off 3/8 at 4.56.
The Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators are mixed this morning, having generated new Sell signals in the RUT, DJT and XLF. The SPX and the COMPQ are sitting on new Sell signals intra day, but have not yet closed with a new Sell signal. I looks like we will get a rally off the morning lows, so I do not have any new short positions to recommend as yet. I like the levered ETF's, and tlhe FAZ, the TZA, the SDS and the QID all have generated new Buy signals, but lets wait for the 3:00pm pricing to see where the SPX and COMPQ is trading before putting on new positions. I don't want to get in front of a new rally if that is what is in store today.
I don't have my hero hat on today. I am a little confused by the weakness in the domestic debt markets.. if there is a serious flight to quality developing, it would seem the bond market should be up, and the dollar should be stronger.
I will post something later today as we get a better look at the days action.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
The Dow is off 30 and the SPX is off 3.25, a trading a little better than the first call. All the major indexes are off except the XLF. I don't have a Green arrow in any of the commodity complex, with the Oil down hard, off 2.06 at 88.80, Gold down hard, off 22.70 at 1347.5, Silver down 0.97 at 27.85. The Euro is off a little at 1.345 and the Dollar is up a little at 78.86. The 10 year Note is off 3/8 at 3.39 and the long Bond is off 3/8 at 4.56.
The Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators are mixed this morning, having generated new Sell signals in the RUT, DJT and XLF. The SPX and the COMPQ are sitting on new Sell signals intra day, but have not yet closed with a new Sell signal. I looks like we will get a rally off the morning lows, so I do not have any new short positions to recommend as yet. I like the levered ETF's, and tlhe FAZ, the TZA, the SDS and the QID all have generated new Buy signals, but lets wait for the 3:00pm pricing to see where the SPX and COMPQ is trading before putting on new positions. I don't want to get in front of a new rally if that is what is in store today.
I don't have my hero hat on today. I am a little confused by the weakness in the domestic debt markets.. if there is a serious flight to quality developing, it would seem the bond market should be up, and the dollar should be stronger.
I will post something later today as we get a better look at the days action.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Hump Day, 3:00pm
All major equities indexes have now turned down for the day, with the Dow off 20 and the SPX off 13.50. The decline is more impressive when percentage moves are considered, with the Dow of 0.16%, yet the SPX is off 1.03%, the Transports off 1.89%, the RUT off 2.28%, the Q's off 1.18% and the XLF off 2.11%.
We are again nearing a new Sell signal in the SPX, as shown in our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators. We are not yet ready to issue short recommendations, although we have sold all long positions this morning. In fact, some of the preferred short equivalents like the QID, SDS, TZA and FAZ are already in new Buy signal condition, but we do not want to recommend a short until the underlying index has turned in a Momentum Change signal.
So, keep the powder dry.. it looks like we are getting ready for some new positions.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
We are again nearing a new Sell signal in the SPX, as shown in our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators. We are not yet ready to issue short recommendations, although we have sold all long positions this morning. In fact, some of the preferred short equivalents like the QID, SDS, TZA and FAZ are already in new Buy signal condition, but we do not want to recommend a short until the underlying index has turned in a Momentum Change signal.
So, keep the powder dry.. it looks like we are getting ready for some new positions.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Hump Day at 10:00am, Trading Alert
Mr Market is again mixed this morning, with the Dow up and most every other index down. Oil is up on the day at 91.78, but is off the best levels of 92.10. Gold is up 7.79 at 1375.9 and Silver is up .52 at 29.43. The Euro is strong, off its highs of 1.35 at 1.348 and the Dollar continues its relentless decline, trading at 78.44. The 10 year Note is up a little at 3.345% and the Long Bond is up, trading at 4.54%.
This is now the 2nd day in a row that the Dow is up, right now up 20, while every other major index is down. For the 2nd day in a row, the PM's and the entire commodity complex is up, with the exception of coffee. It feels to me that the only engine pulling the market up this long, tiring slope is the Dow.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators are still working with the Buy signal first generated 12/1, but has again moved to Neutral. I am gong to recommend that traders take long positions off the board.....we are selling the SPY and the XLF at the market this morning, with the SPY trading at 129.16 and the XLF trading at 16.45.
However, we will wait for the Momentum Change indicators to generate a Sell signal before we enter Short positions, or short equivalent ETF's
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
This is now the 2nd day in a row that the Dow is up, right now up 20, while every other major index is down. For the 2nd day in a row, the PM's and the entire commodity complex is up, with the exception of coffee. It feels to me that the only engine pulling the market up this long, tiring slope is the Dow.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators are still working with the Buy signal first generated 12/1, but has again moved to Neutral. I am gong to recommend that traders take long positions off the board.....we are selling the SPY and the XLF at the market this morning, with the SPY trading at 129.16 and the XLF trading at 16.45.
However, we will wait for the Momentum Change indicators to generate a Sell signal before we enter Short positions, or short equivalent ETF's
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
All Most Noon, Tuesday
Equities market this morning is strong, after a mixed opening. The Dow is up 65 and the SPX up only .65. The remaining indexes are mixed, with the Q's up a little and the XLF down down almost 1%. Oil is better after a weak open, trading down .06 at 91.48, while Gold is u[ 8.90 at 1369.4 and Silver is up .59 at 28.91. The Euro is strong on Improved European output, trading at 1.34. A close higher could signal the breakout of the move back to the highs of early November. The Dollar is off, trading at 78.79. The Dollar is sitting on support levels that if broken could signal a continuation of the decline. The surprise move is the weakness in the domestic debt market, with the 10 year down 1/2 point at 3.39 while the long Bond is down nearly a point at 4.59% News that China had reduced US debt holdings by $11 Billion could be a factor.
The fact the major indexes can be so completely mixed, even while the Dow is up 61 points is another indication that there are fewer and fewer engines pulling this equity market up the hill. We are also coming up again on a period where our timing signals are suggesting a pull back is in order. Of course, our timing signals have been getting violated on a regular basis since August, but that does not mean that they will never work again.
Late last week we sold the UUP and the TLT.... Momentum had quickly died after the initial Buy and rather than sit and wait for a complete momentum change, we will wait for another opportunity to come along.
The signal in the SPX triggered 12/1 is still in effect.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
The fact the major indexes can be so completely mixed, even while the Dow is up 61 points is another indication that there are fewer and fewer engines pulling this equity market up the hill. We are also coming up again on a period where our timing signals are suggesting a pull back is in order. Of course, our timing signals have been getting violated on a regular basis since August, but that does not mean that they will never work again.
Late last week we sold the UUP and the TLT.... Momentum had quickly died after the initial Buy and rather than sit and wait for a complete momentum change, we will wait for another opportunity to come along.
The signal in the SPX triggered 12/1 is still in effect.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Monday, January 17, 2011
Monday Morning Day Off, Thanks MLK
The domestic markets are closed today, as are the Schools, Banks, and Government offices. The World markets are mostly down less than 1%, with the exception of China, where the equity market is down over 3.5%. Oil, Gold, Silver and the Euro are all down small, while the Dollar is up a little. Bonds are flat in offshore trading.
The big news is that Steve Jobs has taken a medical leave-of-absence, although he remains the Chairman. Apple shares trading in Europe are off around $30, down nearly 10%. Zerohedge has a story reminding us that AAPL represents nearly 20% of the NASDAQ, and of the fact that 200 hedge funds own AAPL, with the smallest position equaling $133,000,000. I wonder which one will attempt to be the first one out the door........I bet it will be a crowded doorway.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators have maintained the Buy recommendation generated on 12/1/2010, and that is still in effect. The indicator has moved 2 time into the neutral zone, but has not yet moved to a Sell signal. Yet Mr market continues to build powerful negative divergences in RSI, MACD, 10 day SMA in the advance/decline indicator, percentage of stocks above 50 and 200 day MA's, McClellan ratio and the McClellan Sentiment indicators, the NYSE NewHigh/New Low ratio and NASDAQ New High/New Low ratio, the Parker Sentiment ratio, the New High minus New Lows index, and what appear to be historic levels in the Put/Call ratio. I am sure I have missed a couple more. Some of these divergences go back to 4/2010, several are from 7/2010 and most are at least from 9/2010.
There is another indicator that I am watching for a divergence. An indicator that has set up prior to every significant decline this year, that is not yet present. When we see that divergence, then it will be time to unload Mr Market long and position that trading account on the short side. And let's not forget that we are in a Secular Bear Market, so any lingering investor long positions must remember that any top we see may well turn out to be THE top.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
The big news is that Steve Jobs has taken a medical leave-of-absence, although he remains the Chairman. Apple shares trading in Europe are off around $30, down nearly 10%. Zerohedge has a story reminding us that AAPL represents nearly 20% of the NASDAQ, and of the fact that 200 hedge funds own AAPL, with the smallest position equaling $133,000,000. I wonder which one will attempt to be the first one out the door........I bet it will be a crowded doorway.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators have maintained the Buy recommendation generated on 12/1/2010, and that is still in effect. The indicator has moved 2 time into the neutral zone, but has not yet moved to a Sell signal. Yet Mr market continues to build powerful negative divergences in RSI, MACD, 10 day SMA in the advance/decline indicator, percentage of stocks above 50 and 200 day MA's, McClellan ratio and the McClellan Sentiment indicators, the NYSE NewHigh/New Low ratio and NASDAQ New High/New Low ratio, the Parker Sentiment ratio, the New High minus New Lows index, and what appear to be historic levels in the Put/Call ratio. I am sure I have missed a couple more. Some of these divergences go back to 4/2010, several are from 7/2010 and most are at least from 9/2010.
There is another indicator that I am watching for a divergence. An indicator that has set up prior to every significant decline this year, that is not yet present. When we see that divergence, then it will be time to unload Mr Market long and position that trading account on the short side. And let's not forget that we are in a Secular Bear Market, so any lingering investor long positions must remember that any top we see may well turn out to be THE top.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Friday, January 14, 2011
Friday On The Close
Not much to say today........other than Gold getting hit pretty good, closing down 28 at 1359, and Oil rallying from a very weak open to close up .14 at 91.54, there was not really much going on. Oh, except the equities market were up, with the Dow and the SPX closing near the best levels of the day, with the Dow at +55 at 11787 and the SPX up 9.45 at 1293.2.
The action over the week end will likely be in the Dollar, now trading at an important level. Typical Monday action should see the market higher, after all, last year 90% of the gains in the market occurred on Mondays.
Yawn......Just watching for our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators to flash their Sell signal so we can take some profits and put on the short positions that I am anxious to play.
Best To Your Trading and Have a Great Week End!
Bill
The action over the week end will likely be in the Dollar, now trading at an important level. Typical Monday action should see the market higher, after all, last year 90% of the gains in the market occurred on Mondays.
Yawn......Just watching for our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators to flash their Sell signal so we can take some profits and put on the short positions that I am anxious to play.
Best To Your Trading and Have a Great Week End!
Bill
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Thursday Morning
After all kinds of interesting news this morning, which I will get to in a minute, the most impressive thing I saw were photos of the eruption of Mt Etna blowing its top off. Now that is exciting!
The equity market is off, the Dow down 28 and the SPX down 2.90, as most of the major indexes are also down. Oil is down, trading at 91.78, Gold down at 1389.5 and Silver down at 29.68. The 10 year note is down a few ticks, at 3.38% and the long Bond is down small at 4.55%. The big move is in the Euro, up 200 bips at 1.33, while the dollar sinks lower at 79.44.
The headline news this morning is the initial unemployment claims, printing at 445,000 on expectations of 410,000, and last weeks 409,000. The rest of the story is that Non-Seasonally adjusted claims came in at 770,413, 191,000 higher than the NSA number from last week. It must be due to that darn snow storm!
I have long wondered how the Government determined how many were unemployed, and for how long, and I have seen it reported twice in the past week that they basically count the number of checks written. They know how many people are getting checks on each of the State programs, and how many are funded by the supplement Fed programs. Then, when the checks stop being written, the individual is no longer counted as unemployed. In fact, he is no longer counted as being part of the work force.
One of the most misunderstood statistics of this structural employment problem is the shrinking of the work force as a percent of the population. While the population grows, introducing approximately 125,000 to 150,000 new potential workers to the job market each month, our government statistics tell us that the percent of the civilian work force has shrunk from over 66% of population to under 63% The only answer is similar to the treatment of the unemployed whose UE benefits have stopped being delivered. They are merely no longer counted.
No change in our Momentum Change indicators this morning..
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
The equity market is off, the Dow down 28 and the SPX down 2.90, as most of the major indexes are also down. Oil is down, trading at 91.78, Gold down at 1389.5 and Silver down at 29.68. The 10 year note is down a few ticks, at 3.38% and the long Bond is down small at 4.55%. The big move is in the Euro, up 200 bips at 1.33, while the dollar sinks lower at 79.44.
The headline news this morning is the initial unemployment claims, printing at 445,000 on expectations of 410,000, and last weeks 409,000. The rest of the story is that Non-Seasonally adjusted claims came in at 770,413, 191,000 higher than the NSA number from last week. It must be due to that darn snow storm!
I have long wondered how the Government determined how many were unemployed, and for how long, and I have seen it reported twice in the past week that they basically count the number of checks written. They know how many people are getting checks on each of the State programs, and how many are funded by the supplement Fed programs. Then, when the checks stop being written, the individual is no longer counted as unemployed. In fact, he is no longer counted as being part of the work force.
One of the most misunderstood statistics of this structural employment problem is the shrinking of the work force as a percent of the population. While the population grows, introducing approximately 125,000 to 150,000 new potential workers to the job market each month, our government statistics tell us that the percent of the civilian work force has shrunk from over 66% of population to under 63% The only answer is similar to the treatment of the unemployed whose UE benefits have stopped being delivered. They are merely no longer counted.
No change in our Momentum Change indicators this morning..
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Wed Afternoon
The Dow and the SPX are still up on the day, although off the best levels of this morning. Oil has pulled back to 91.89 after being as high as 92.39. Financials still the strongest sector, up 1.50% on the day.
Interesting story on the flooding in Australia from Alternet. Can you imagine an area the size of Texas covered in water? Wow!
Momentum Change Buy signal still in effect for the equities markets.
Best To Your Trading.
Bill
Interesting story on the flooding in Australia from Alternet. Can you imagine an area the size of Texas covered in water? Wow!
Momentum Change Buy signal still in effect for the equities markets.
Best To Your Trading.
Bill
Hump Day.. Getting Ready for Lunch
Mr Market is all excited this morning, with news out of Europe that the 3 year and 7 year debt issued by Portugal was better received than expected. The thought is that the Euro has dodged another bullet. As of this writing, the Dow is up 75, and the SPX is up 8.05. All the major indexes are on the plus side, with the financial leading at plus 1.40%. Commodity complex is generally higher, with Oil making another run at 92, trading at 91.89. Gold is down 3.70 at 1380.6 while its shinny brother Silver is up a couple of ticks at 29.65. The Euro is up at 1.304 and the Dollar is down at 80.48. The debt market is soft, with the Note down amost 1/2 point, at 3.40 and the long Bond is down 3/4 point at 4.54%
Earnings season is on, with no big disappointments yet to halt the euphoria. Somehow the market is unfazed by news that Housing prices have fallen 26% since the highs in 2006, more than the 25.6% decline experienced in the 1930's. Meredith Whitney has renewed her cautionary outlook regarding Muni debt problems, and the danger of defaults. But not to worry, the State of Illinois has just demonstrated how a to avoid a default.. the State House and Senate has just approved a 75% income tax boost that will allow the State to catch up on some back-bills and meet a Pension contribution.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators that offered a Buy signal for the SPX on Dec, 1, 2010 are still in effect, and have moved back into Bullish, away from the concerns earlier this week.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Earnings season is on, with no big disappointments yet to halt the euphoria. Somehow the market is unfazed by news that Housing prices have fallen 26% since the highs in 2006, more than the 25.6% decline experienced in the 1930's. Meredith Whitney has renewed her cautionary outlook regarding Muni debt problems, and the danger of defaults. But not to worry, the State of Illinois has just demonstrated how a to avoid a default.. the State House and Senate has just approved a 75% income tax boost that will allow the State to catch up on some back-bills and meet a Pension contribution.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators that offered a Buy signal for the SPX on Dec, 1, 2010 are still in effect, and have moved back into Bullish, away from the concerns earlier this week.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Tuesday Noon
Huummm......Back to the drawing boards. There must be some magic in that 'ole Mr Market after all!. Dow and the SPX are up this morning, as are most major indexes.. except the Transports which are down 20 points. Oil is strong this morning, up 1.26 at 90.51. The Alaska Pipeline, carrying 11% of US crude production, has been shut down and the operator, Alyeska Pipelilne, has no estimate when operations can re-open. In addition, there are reports of a major fire at a Canadian Oil Shale facility that produces another 4% of crude delivered to the US daily. The only wonder is that oil is not trading at $100 pb. Oh wait.. it has only been 3 days.
The commodity complex is up across the board, with Gold up 3.50 at 1377.6 and Silver up .65 at 29.52. The Euro is up slightly at 1.297, while the dollar is off a few ticks at 80.96 Debt markets are weak, with the Note at 3.35% and long Bond at 4.52%
Our concern about a pending Momentum Change in the big equities indexes has been postponed again, as todays rally has removed some of the pressure. The beginning of 4th quarter earnings reports has begun, and good results generally being the norm.
But concerns remain. With the Dow and the SPX posting new rally highs, we continue to see major divergences. With the new highs in the indexes, you would think that most stocks are participating. But the 5 day summary of US Stocks making new highs, less those making new lows continues to show us that since early November, fewer and fewer stocks are participating in this rally.
So if it seems as if your portfolio is not doing as well as the indexes, here is the proof. We have been saying since April 26, investors long term capital should be parked in a safe liquid place, and only the most nimble trading should be in this market.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
The commodity complex is up across the board, with Gold up 3.50 at 1377.6 and Silver up .65 at 29.52. The Euro is up slightly at 1.297, while the dollar is off a few ticks at 80.96 Debt markets are weak, with the Note at 3.35% and long Bond at 4.52%
Our concern about a pending Momentum Change in the big equities indexes has been postponed again, as todays rally has removed some of the pressure. The beginning of 4th quarter earnings reports has begun, and good results generally being the norm.
But concerns remain. With the Dow and the SPX posting new rally highs, we continue to see major divergences. With the new highs in the indexes, you would think that most stocks are participating. But the 5 day summary of US Stocks making new highs, less those making new lows continues to show us that since early November, fewer and fewer stocks are participating in this rally.
So if it seems as if your portfolio is not doing as well as the indexes, here is the proof. We have been saying since April 26, investors long term capital should be parked in a safe liquid place, and only the most nimble trading should be in this market.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Monday, January 10, 2011
Monday After the Close
After teetering all day on a new Sell signal, the SPY and XLF closed with the existing Buy signal still in effect. As of the close, both ETF's are in a sideways range and additional weakness tomorrow could trigger a new signal. After taking several small losses, it will be nice to take a couple of profits.
I have had a couple of questions about why I reversed the 2 PM trades made last week, in the levered short Gold and Silver shares. It is all about limiting loss and even though the Momentum Change indicators are still flashing a decline, the Failed Auction pattern reappeared during the day, and as it is one of the most reliable, though relatively rare signals, it was warning of a reversal of the momentum. Rather than sit and wait for a Momentum Change, I thought it best to get out.... while there was still enough profit in the trades to cover the nominal commissions. It is possible that the short position will re-emerge and we can take another crack at a decline in PM's.
Near the close, we got stopped out of the QID at 10.99, with a $.56 loss.
Earnings season is upon us, and the first to report, Alcoa, reported good earnings, beating estimates by $.02 per share, but reported gross sales missed consensus estimates by $100,000,000. This is a continuation of what we saw for most of the past year.. corporate earnings looking good, while sales showed YOY decline. It some point in the near future, with out an improvement in either pricing power, or increased production and sales, margins are going to get crushed by escalating cost of raw materials.
Sovereign debt problems are again in the news today, with Portugal asking for ECB help in cushioning debt re-alignment. Is Spain far behind?
Tomorrow is again going to be a nail bitter, as a Momentum Change again will be possible.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
I have had a couple of questions about why I reversed the 2 PM trades made last week, in the levered short Gold and Silver shares. It is all about limiting loss and even though the Momentum Change indicators are still flashing a decline, the Failed Auction pattern reappeared during the day, and as it is one of the most reliable, though relatively rare signals, it was warning of a reversal of the momentum. Rather than sit and wait for a Momentum Change, I thought it best to get out.... while there was still enough profit in the trades to cover the nominal commissions. It is possible that the short position will re-emerge and we can take another crack at a decline in PM's.
Near the close, we got stopped out of the QID at 10.99, with a $.56 loss.
Earnings season is upon us, and the first to report, Alcoa, reported good earnings, beating estimates by $.02 per share, but reported gross sales missed consensus estimates by $100,000,000. This is a continuation of what we saw for most of the past year.. corporate earnings looking good, while sales showed YOY decline. It some point in the near future, with out an improvement in either pricing power, or increased production and sales, margins are going to get crushed by escalating cost of raw materials.
Sovereign debt problems are again in the news today, with Portugal asking for ECB help in cushioning debt re-alignment. Is Spain far behind?
Tomorrow is again going to be a nail bitter, as a Momentum Change again will be possible.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Trading Alert.. New Sell signal for DZZ and ZSL
Both Gold and Silver now demonstrating Failed Auctions in SLV and GLD.....
Although momentum is still to the downside, one of our most reliable indicators, the Failed Auction, is signaling a move the the up side. As the move can be violent, we want to be out of the levered short ETF's that track those markets.
Sell the DZZ, trading at 8.55 and the ZSL, trading at 10.98 at the Market......
Although momentum is still to the downside, one of our most reliable indicators, the Failed Auction, is signaling a move the the up side. As the move can be violent, we want to be out of the levered short ETF's that track those markets.
Sell the DZZ, trading at 8.55 and the ZSL, trading at 10.98 at the Market......
Monday Morning Trading Alert
Market has opened weak, with the Dow off 83 and the SPX off 7.57 as this is written. All of the major indexes are off, the Bond market is up, Dollar is up, and Gold and Silver is up. Looks like a move to safety is back on.. or another way to say the "Risk Off" trade is back on.
We are very close to Momentum Change signals in the SPY and in the XLF. At 10:15am the market is rallying a little after the hard down open.......... if the market stays weak for the day, we will have a sell signal in the SPY and the XLF before the close.
Be ready for a trading signal after 3:30pm
Best to your trading!
Bill
We are very close to Momentum Change signals in the SPY and in the XLF. At 10:15am the market is rallying a little after the hard down open.......... if the market stays weak for the day, we will have a sell signal in the SPY and the XLF before the close.
Be ready for a trading signal after 3:30pm
Best to your trading!
Bill
Friday, January 7, 2011
TGIF Afternoon
Market is weak this afternoon, with The Dollar near its high for the day at 80.02, Gold and Silver and Copper down, Bonds and the 10 year are both now trading higher.
All of the major indexes are now down on the day, with the exception of the Transports, which are up 25%.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators for the SPY and the XLF have moved into the neutral zone.. we are watching for additional changes this afternoon......If we get a new Sell signal, we will email an alert.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
All of the major indexes are now down on the day, with the exception of the Transports, which are up 25%.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators for the SPY and the XLF have moved into the neutral zone.. we are watching for additional changes this afternoon......If we get a new Sell signal, we will email an alert.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
TGIF...The Day After the Top
Mr Market can't make up his mind whether or not he likes the NFP report. First it's down, then it's up and now it's down. Most of the major indexes are down at11:20m with the DJI dow 20 and the SPX down 3.05. The commodity complex is equally confused, with Gold opening down 13, and is now up 4.3 at 1376. Silver also opened down and is now trading up at 29.23, while Oil is up 1.06 at 89.44.. Copper is the biggest news for us... Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators has flashed a Sell signal in Copper. Not that we trade it.... just that it has been the rabbit Mr Market has been chasing up the slope.
The Euro is down a couple of ticks at 1.296 while the dollar, opening as high as 81.06, has turned down, now trading at 80.73. The Long Bond is down a couple of ticks, at 4.53% and the 10 year Note is up, trading at 3.37.
The news the Mr Market had been waiting for, the monthly employment report has received mixed reception. With expectations at plus 150,000, the print at 103,000 was a disappointment. But then, unemployment was also down, printing at 9.4% vs 9.7%. The headline, as always looked good until a reader got to the 4th paragraph...where you learn that the work force has declined to 64.3%. 47% of Unemployed workers looking for a job have been looking longer than 27 weeks.
The Euro is down a couple of ticks at 1.296 while the dollar, opening as high as 81.06, has turned down, now trading at 80.73. The Long Bond is down a couple of ticks, at 4.53% and the 10 year Note is up, trading at 3.37.
The news the Mr Market had been waiting for, the monthly employment report has received mixed reception. With expectations at plus 150,000, the print at 103,000 was a disappointment. But then, unemployment was also down, printing at 9.4% vs 9.7%. The headline, as always looked good until a reader got to the 4th paragraph...where you learn that the work force has declined to 64.3%. 47% of Unemployed workers looking for a job have been looking longer than 27 weeks.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
This Might Be The Day!
OK, first let's look at the numbers as they are at 11:45am. Oil is down 2 at 88.3, Gold is down 6.1 at 1367 and Silver is down .27 at 28.93. The Euro is off a little at 1.301 and the Dollar is up, trading at 80.77. The Long Bond is up a little at 4.53% and the 10 year Note is up a little at 3.42%. The Dow and the SPX opened soft, then turned up, then turned back down on reports the snow storm slowing retail sales? Humm......Right now, all the major indexes are down, with the exception of the COMPQ, which is up a little.
Now, I am beginning to get excited. In the last 2 days, our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators have generated a new Buy signal in the US Dollar, a New Sell signal in the Gold and Silver markets, and a confirmation of the Buy signal in the TLT. I am excited because the set-ups for all three are very strong, including a series of failed auction in the Dollar and in the Bonds. These are the best set-ups since the buy signals in the equities markets back on 9/1.
I do not yet have sell signals in the DJI or the SPX, or the other long positions, but the SPX momentum has been weak, and with a strengthening dollar, the equity indexes may quickly turn to the downside. But not just yet, but my finger is on the switch.
I do have 3 new trades, based on the Dollar strength and weakness in the PM's. The ETF that tracks the Dollar, the UUP is the only safe Dollar trade for us equity guys (commodity traders have much better choices). It can be a slow poke, but it should advance with a Bull move in the Dollar.
In addition, with the weakness in the PM's, I like the leveraged shorts in Silver and in Gold. The double short Gold is DZZ and the double short Silver is ZSL.
I am watching carefully for changes in momentum in the remaining equity trades.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Now, I am beginning to get excited. In the last 2 days, our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators have generated a new Buy signal in the US Dollar, a New Sell signal in the Gold and Silver markets, and a confirmation of the Buy signal in the TLT. I am excited because the set-ups for all three are very strong, including a series of failed auction in the Dollar and in the Bonds. These are the best set-ups since the buy signals in the equities markets back on 9/1.
I do not yet have sell signals in the DJI or the SPX, or the other long positions, but the SPX momentum has been weak, and with a strengthening dollar, the equity indexes may quickly turn to the downside. But not just yet, but my finger is on the switch.
I do have 3 new trades, based on the Dollar strength and weakness in the PM's. The ETF that tracks the Dollar, the UUP is the only safe Dollar trade for us equity guys (commodity traders have much better choices). It can be a slow poke, but it should advance with a Bull move in the Dollar.
In addition, with the weakness in the PM's, I like the leveraged shorts in Silver and in Gold. The double short Gold is DZZ and the double short Silver is ZSL.
I am watching carefully for changes in momentum in the remaining equity trades.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Trading Alert
FXE has broken support at 130.50, and we have issued a sell signal. We have sold at 130.20, taking a $2.33 loss.
The Dollar strength has continued, and as per our thoughts yesterday on Dollar strength, we are looking at a trade based on Dollar strength that we will issue this afternoon.
Best To Your Trading.
Bill
The Dollar strength has continued, and as per our thoughts yesterday on Dollar strength, we are looking at a trade based on Dollar strength that we will issue this afternoon.
Best To Your Trading.
Bill
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Afternoon, 1/5/2010
Not much change since the Noon update, except the Oil market has improved dramatically, with the WTIC now trading UP over 1% at 90.31. And the equities market is stronger, with the major indexes all showing up ticks.
I wanted to pass along an insight that I picked up from Nic Lenoir, who posts frequently at Zerohedge. He calls attention to the US Dollar and the longer term chart of price action. His observation is that for the past 3 years, (and perhaps longer... I didn't pull back and look) the Dollar has respected the 60 day SMA as either a support line or a resistance line. It is noted that the Dollar last week tested, and bounced off the 60 day SMA at 79. This action could have implications going forward for the equities markets, and even for the commodities markets. A strong dollar and a falling bond market are likely to have serious impacts on the equities market.
And for a little additional insight into what look to be Structural/Institutional labor problems domestically, here is a paragraph from a Harold Meyerson column in today's Washington post:
Our multinational companies still invest, of course - just not at home. A study by the Business Roundtable and the U.S. Council Foundation found that the share of the profits of U.S.-based multinationals that came from their foreign affiliates had increased from 17 percent in 1977 and 27 percent in 1994 to 48.6 percent in 2006. As the companies' revenue from abroad has increased, their dependence on American consumers has diminished. The equilibrium among production, wages and purchasing power - the equilibrium that Henry Ford famously recognized when he upped his workers' pay to an unheard-of $5 a day in 1913 so they could afford to buy the cars they made, the equilibrium that became the model for 20th-century American capitalism - has been shattered. Making and selling their goods abroad, U.S. multinationals can slash their workforces and reduce their wages at home while retaining their revenue and increasing their profits. And that's exactly what they've done. :
TLT is under pressure today and our Buy recommendation has moved to "sideways". We will watch the close for any sign of a Momentum Change.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
I wanted to pass along an insight that I picked up from Nic Lenoir, who posts frequently at Zerohedge. He calls attention to the US Dollar and the longer term chart of price action. His observation is that for the past 3 years, (and perhaps longer... I didn't pull back and look) the Dollar has respected the 60 day SMA as either a support line or a resistance line. It is noted that the Dollar last week tested, and bounced off the 60 day SMA at 79. This action could have implications going forward for the equities markets, and even for the commodities markets. A strong dollar and a falling bond market are likely to have serious impacts on the equities market.
And for a little additional insight into what look to be Structural/Institutional labor problems domestically, here is a paragraph from a Harold Meyerson column in today's Washington post:
Our multinational companies still invest, of course - just not at home. A study by the Business Roundtable and the U.S. Council Foundation found that the share of the profits of U.S.-based multinationals that came from their foreign affiliates had increased from 17 percent in 1977 and 27 percent in 1994 to 48.6 percent in 2006. As the companies' revenue from abroad has increased, their dependence on American consumers has diminished. The equilibrium among production, wages and purchasing power - the equilibrium that Henry Ford famously recognized when he upped his workers' pay to an unheard-of $5 a day in 1913 so they could afford to buy the cars they made, the equilibrium that became the model for 20th-century American capitalism - has been shattered. Making and selling their goods abroad, U.S. multinationals can slash their workforces and reduce their wages at home while retaining their revenue and increasing their profits. And that's exactly what they've done. :
TLT is under pressure today and our Buy recommendation has moved to "sideways". We will watch the close for any sign of a Momentum Change.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Wed Afternoon, 1/5/2010
At the open, I could not find a Green arrow anywhere in the commodity complex, but then the whole complex went to "mixed". As this is written, the Dollar is strong, up over 1% at 80.31, while the Euro is down over 1%, trading at 1.315. Gold is trading down 8.5 at 1370.3, Oil is down 1 at 88.38 and Silver is down 2% at 28.93. The long Bond is down 1.5, trading at 3.43% and the 10 year Note is down .90, at 3.44%. The Dow and SPX opened down, but have rallied on goods news from ADP which stated the 290,000 new private sector jobs were formed in December. I can't believe anyone could have been surprised that a bunch of retail clerks were hired for the Christmas shopping season.
We issued a trading alert this morning as the Euro approached its trend support line at 130.60. Momentum is still bullish, but has moved to "sideways". With the strength in the dollar surprising again this morning, we will be watching closely for a trend change in the FXE. We will post this afternoon a Dollar chart that shows there may be a real rally coming in the Dollar, which of course would have major implications for the equities market.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
We issued a trading alert this morning as the Euro approached its trend support line at 130.60. Momentum is still bullish, but has moved to "sideways". With the strength in the dollar surprising again this morning, we will be watching closely for a trend change in the FXE. We will post this afternoon a Dollar chart that shows there may be a real rally coming in the Dollar, which of course would have major implications for the equities market.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Trading Alert
FXE, the Euro based ETF is approaching trend support lines.....if broken, we will be a seller. The Buy momentum has been eroding and is currently "sideways". We will be watching the 130.50 to 130.50 level carefully.
Best to your trading!
Bill
Best to your trading!
Bill
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Tuesday 1/4/2010
I am writing this about 3:15pm, after falling asleep this morning due to boredom!.
The Dow is up 9 points, but all the rest of the indexes, including the Transports and the SPX are off . All the action today is in the PM's and Oil. Crude is trading 89.23, down 2.32, Gold trading at 1,380.9, donw a big $42, and Silver at 29.78, down 1.35. Either the top is in place, or we will soon be looking at another buying opportunity.
The Euro is off a little at 1.33 and the Dollar is up, trading currently at 79.19. The surprise here is the weakness in the debt markets, with the long bond down, at 4.43% and the 10 year at 3.35%. I am going to have to go back to correlation school, and I don't understand what I am seeing.
The minutes of the FOMC have been released......and they continue to offer their observation regarding the markets. " members agreed that only small changes were necessary to reflect the modest improvement in the near-term economic outlook". After 2 years of 0% interest rates, 2+ Trillion in Federal Stimulus spending, and 1.5 Trillion in Fed QE, the economy is still not recovered sufficiently to operate with out government intervention. I am glad I don't have to wander about, looking for that "recovery" that is propelling the equity markets.....the Fed is telling us that it is not there!
We have earlier issued a Trading Alert to SELL the long position in USO as the market . Momentum has flipped and we are out at 38.06, taking a $2.81 profit.
The rest of our positions are still active.
Best to your trading.
Bill
The Dow is up 9 points, but all the rest of the indexes, including the Transports and the SPX are off . All the action today is in the PM's and Oil. Crude is trading 89.23, down 2.32, Gold trading at 1,380.9, donw a big $42, and Silver at 29.78, down 1.35. Either the top is in place, or we will soon be looking at another buying opportunity.
The Euro is off a little at 1.33 and the Dollar is up, trading currently at 79.19. The surprise here is the weakness in the debt markets, with the long bond down, at 4.43% and the 10 year at 3.35%. I am going to have to go back to correlation school, and I don't understand what I am seeing.
The minutes of the FOMC have been released......and they continue to offer their observation regarding the markets. " members agreed that only small changes were necessary to reflect the modest improvement in the near-term economic outlook". After 2 years of 0% interest rates, 2+ Trillion in Federal Stimulus spending, and 1.5 Trillion in Fed QE, the economy is still not recovered sufficiently to operate with out government intervention. I am glad I don't have to wander about, looking for that "recovery" that is propelling the equity markets.....the Fed is telling us that it is not there!
We have earlier issued a Trading Alert to SELL the long position in USO as the market . Momentum has flipped and we are out at 38.06, taking a $2.81 profit.
The rest of our positions are still active.
Best to your trading.
Bill
1/4/2010 Trading Alert
USO is down hard this afternoon, tracking the WTIC down 2 and a half points. Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators have flashed a SELL signal, at 38.10.
We are selling at 38.06
Bill
We are selling at 38.06
Bill
Monday, January 3, 2011
Trading Alert
We have been stopped out of the Short trade in QQQQ at 55.69 with a loss of $1.09. The QID has not yet been stopped out.
All other signals still in effect.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
All other signals still in effect.
Best To Your Trading!
Bill
First Trading Day, 2011
Mr Market is starting the new year with lots of firepower.....with the Dow up 110 in the first 30 minutes, after being up 75 to 80 over night. BAC has settled "put back" claims for 2.6 Billion, sending the stock up 4.5% to13.95. Reports over the weekend have European Manufacturing continuing to improve, while most European indexes were mixed. Asia mostly higher News this morning has the Construction up and the Manufacturing reporting the best levels in 7 months.
Oil is up 1, trading at a new recovery high of 92.37, and Gold up a few pennies at 1,421.8. Silver is trading at a new high of 31.06, while strength continues in the commodity complex. Treasuries are off, with the long bond down almost 1.5 points at 4.42% and the 10 year down almost a point, at 3.41. Yield curve continues to flatten, now at 1.01%. The Dollar is up a couple of ticks, as is the Euro.
Our momentum change reported for the Q's, generating a new Sell signal at 54.60 late last week is trading at 55.56. Our Stop Loss is at 55.69. If we get stopped out, we will watch for either a momentum change, or an opportunity to re-enter the Short trade. The Stop Loss for the QID is at 10.99.
We will post an update around 3:00pm....watching especially the Q's.. it is unlikely that a momentum change will occur today, but it is clearly moving against us at this time and we won't wait around for a momentum change.
Best to your Trading!
Bill
Oil is up 1, trading at a new recovery high of 92.37, and Gold up a few pennies at 1,421.8. Silver is trading at a new high of 31.06, while strength continues in the commodity complex. Treasuries are off, with the long bond down almost 1.5 points at 4.42% and the 10 year down almost a point, at 3.41. Yield curve continues to flatten, now at 1.01%. The Dollar is up a couple of ticks, as is the Euro.
Our momentum change reported for the Q's, generating a new Sell signal at 54.60 late last week is trading at 55.56. Our Stop Loss is at 55.69. If we get stopped out, we will watch for either a momentum change, or an opportunity to re-enter the Short trade. The Stop Loss for the QID is at 10.99.
We will post an update around 3:00pm....watching especially the Q's.. it is unlikely that a momentum change will occur today, but it is clearly moving against us at this time and we won't wait around for a momentum change.
Best to your Trading!
Bill
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Sunday 1/2/2-11
Bummer! Big 10 lost all three bowl games. I wish my Momentum Change Indicators worked as well for Collage football as it does for the equity markets.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators have generated a new Sell signal for the COMPQ and the Q's. Thursday, 12-30, the QQQQ Sell signal was triggered at 54.60, with our recommendation of short of the ETF. For those inclined to trade the levered ETF's. the QID also generated a complementary signal, a Buy signal at 11.55 also on Thursday, 12/30.
We have all noted that the NASDAQ has led the rally since 9/1, with out an interruption. Now, with the change in momentum in this group, we will be watching carefully for a change in momentum in the other equity indexes. The Market may well open for trading in the new year with an over due correction of the 4 month rally. With the new Buy signal last week in the TLT, maybe the market is signaling a new preference for the "Risk Off" trade.
If we get new Momentum Change signals Monday, will will post them as they occur.
Best to Your Trading!
Have a Happy and Profitable New Year.
Bill
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators have generated a new Sell signal for the COMPQ and the Q's. Thursday, 12-30, the QQQQ Sell signal was triggered at 54.60, with our recommendation of short of the ETF. For those inclined to trade the levered ETF's. the QID also generated a complementary signal, a Buy signal at 11.55 also on Thursday, 12/30.
We have all noted that the NASDAQ has led the rally since 9/1, with out an interruption. Now, with the change in momentum in this group, we will be watching carefully for a change in momentum in the other equity indexes. The Market may well open for trading in the new year with an over due correction of the 4 month rally. With the new Buy signal last week in the TLT, maybe the market is signaling a new preference for the "Risk Off" trade.
If we get new Momentum Change signals Monday, will will post them as they occur.
Best to Your Trading!
Have a Happy and Profitable New Year.
Bill
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