Looks like all the traders have left the building! Equity markets are sleeping right around the "unchanged" level, while Gold is up $7 and Oil is taking a breather, trading under $90 at 89.33. The Euro is strong, trading at 1.34, while the Dollar continues decline, trading at 79.51. The action today is in the bond markets, with bonds strong, with the long bond at 4.38% and the 10 year at 3.32%. Our Momentum Change indicators on Wed signaled a new direct for the bond, with a new Buy for the TLT at 92.0.
With oil down, gold up, dollar down, bond up.......looks like the correlations continue to by absent.
Our Momentum Change indicators are back flashing "look at me" signals in the SPY and the Oil... but both are still holding the Buy signals as of this morning. USO hourly chart is showing a series of failed auctions at 38, indicating a rally from this level. If we get new signals this afternoon, we will post it prior to the close.
Happy New Year... and Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Day Before New Years Eve
Just when everything is going our way, things change. Oh, that's right.. this is Momentum Changes!
We have a Momentum Change this morning in the FXE (Euro).. this is a volatile market as we all know, and change can happen quickly.. but we can react quickly! Momentum has changed to the upside, and we closed the Short Sale of 12/20 at 132.42 this morning, closing the short at 132.53 with $0.21 loss, and went long at 132.53. We also closed the UUP long, entered 12/15 at 23.10, with a Sell at 23.05, losing $0.05. We do not have a recommendation at this time, although the Dollar index is now in an uptrend.
With the new weakness in the Dollar, our USO and SPY trades should continue up. The financials and our XLF trade are still in an uptrend.
Economic news headlines this morning were good, with Seasonally Adjusted new apps for unemployment declining to 388,000, down from adjusted 422,000 last week. However, unadjusted reported at 521,384, which was higher than last weeks 497,000. The Glass-is-always-half full Chicago PMI surged to new highs, highest since 1988, printing at 68.6 and well above estimates of 61. This report is generally considered an outlier, and the market promptly ignored it, now down 12 Dow points on the day.
Equity market indexes are down across the board, although nothing dramatic. Bonds are up the second day in a row, Dollar is down, Euro is up, Oil down and Gold is down. Correlations again off the beam. Am I the only one who feels the markets have gone to sleep the past couple of weeks?
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
We have a Momentum Change this morning in the FXE (Euro).. this is a volatile market as we all know, and change can happen quickly.. but we can react quickly! Momentum has changed to the upside, and we closed the Short Sale of 12/20 at 132.42 this morning, closing the short at 132.53 with $0.21 loss, and went long at 132.53. We also closed the UUP long, entered 12/15 at 23.10, with a Sell at 23.05, losing $0.05. We do not have a recommendation at this time, although the Dollar index is now in an uptrend.
With the new weakness in the Dollar, our USO and SPY trades should continue up. The financials and our XLF trade are still in an uptrend.
Economic news headlines this morning were good, with Seasonally Adjusted new apps for unemployment declining to 388,000, down from adjusted 422,000 last week. However, unadjusted reported at 521,384, which was higher than last weeks 497,000. The Glass-is-always-half full Chicago PMI surged to new highs, highest since 1988, printing at 68.6 and well above estimates of 61. This report is generally considered an outlier, and the market promptly ignored it, now down 12 Dow points on the day.
Equity market indexes are down across the board, although nothing dramatic. Bonds are up the second day in a row, Dollar is down, Euro is up, Oil down and Gold is down. Correlations again off the beam. Am I the only one who feels the markets have gone to sleep the past couple of weeks?
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Santa Keeps on Bringing the Gifts!
The equities markets are higher this morning, with all major indexes on the plus side, with the exception of the financial, which are off a couple of ticks. The Dow continues to be the strongest, up .35% vs .25% for the SPX The bond market continues to take serious hits, with the long bond down again, trading at 4.54%, and the 10 year down, trading at 3.49% 10s30 spread continues to flatten, now at 105 bibs. However, we notice the decline in bonds is losing strength, and may be nearing a bounce... but not quite yet. Oil is at 91.18, off .31 and Gold is at 1,407.3, up 1.70. The Euro is up a couple of ticks at 1.31, while the Dollar 80.13, down .18. The Yen continues to strengthen against the Euro and the Dollar.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators continue to hold the SPY Buy signal, and after 2 days of teetering, is today strengthening. It is looking like the Year End rally will hold through the New Year. Our Sell signal in the FXE remains in effect, although the trend is losing strength. Our Buy signal in the Dollar, trading the UUP, is beginning to look a little ragged, and we are watching closely for a momentum change. The down trend seems to be strengthening. Our Buy signal for Oil continue strong, with the trend strengthening, however price is nearing trend resistance line. Price maybe in for a little back and forth shortly.
Enjoy the Year End rally, and get ready for the fireworks next year. We will be ready to trade either side of the market with the same enthusiasm.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators continue to hold the SPY Buy signal, and after 2 days of teetering, is today strengthening. It is looking like the Year End rally will hold through the New Year. Our Sell signal in the FXE remains in effect, although the trend is losing strength. Our Buy signal in the Dollar, trading the UUP, is beginning to look a little ragged, and we are watching closely for a momentum change. The down trend seems to be strengthening. Our Buy signal for Oil continue strong, with the trend strengthening, however price is nearing trend resistance line. Price maybe in for a little back and forth shortly.
Enjoy the Year End rally, and get ready for the fireworks next year. We will be ready to trade either side of the market with the same enthusiasm.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Tuesday Mid-Day
Big movers today are in the metals futures, the energy futures and in Ag futures .. the only down tick is in Rice. Gold is the big mover, up $22 at $1,405, with oil at $91.40 and Silver again above $30 at $30.28. Big moves also in Wheat, Corn and Sugar. Surprise is that the dollar remains strong, at 80.37. Bond are weak again with the long bond again moving near 4.5%.
The equities markets are mostly quiet, with the Dow and SPX up a couple of ticks, while Transports, Q's and Financials off a little. Our concern today again is our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators are again getting close to flipping.. but not just yet. We will post a special update prior to the close if it looks like it will flip. This is the 3rd trading day we have had concern about direction.
From today's headlines, the Case Shiller housing index declines for the 4th month in a row, and Confidence Board Consumer Confidence indexes prints a big miss.. at 52.5 vs consensus of 56.3 and Novembers 54.3. Hard to figure out how all those wonderful retail sales numbers were generated with this level of consumer confidence.
More this afternoon.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
The equities markets are mostly quiet, with the Dow and SPX up a couple of ticks, while Transports, Q's and Financials off a little. Our concern today again is our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators are again getting close to flipping.. but not just yet. We will post a special update prior to the close if it looks like it will flip. This is the 3rd trading day we have had concern about direction.
From today's headlines, the Case Shiller housing index declines for the 4th month in a row, and Confidence Board Consumer Confidence indexes prints a big miss.. at 52.5 vs consensus of 56.3 and Novembers 54.3. Hard to figure out how all those wonderful retail sales numbers were generated with this level of consumer confidence.
More this afternoon.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Monday, December 27, 2010
Monday Morning
All domestic equity indexes are down this morning, following the weakness in world markets. While the Nikkei was up .75%, the Chinese market was down nearly 2%. The Singapore market was up a tad, but all the rest were down on the first trading day after Christmas.
The Euro is up.04 ticks, while the dollar is down a little at 80.38. Oil is off .65 at 90.86 and Gold is at 1382, down 1.62 The Long Bond is off, trading at 4.48% and the 10 year is off, trading at 3.41. The 10s30 continues to flatten, at 1.07%. While the Fed is filling the candy jar for the banks, the market is taking away the cookie jar.
The Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Index is the only big report this morning, coming at 12.89, missing expectations of 17. This number is also lower than the November reported at 13.1 The really juicy info, as always, appears in the sub-paragraphs. The Finished Goods Inventories surged by 11.1%, and the 6 Month Forward jumped nearly 20%. With Wall Street analysts focused on margins, the news here is what we expected.....prices paid for raw materials surged 9%, and wages and benefits up 4.4%, while new order volume fell 7.5%.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicator for the SPX remains on Buy, although it has moved to neutral. Another down day tomorrow and the signal may flip. As you know, we are monitoring a large number of negative divergences in our key timing indicators, but the momentum is still to the up side.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
The Euro is up.04 ticks, while the dollar is down a little at 80.38. Oil is off .65 at 90.86 and Gold is at 1382, down 1.62 The Long Bond is off, trading at 4.48% and the 10 year is off, trading at 3.41. The 10s30 continues to flatten, at 1.07%. While the Fed is filling the candy jar for the banks, the market is taking away the cookie jar.
The Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Index is the only big report this morning, coming at 12.89, missing expectations of 17. This number is also lower than the November reported at 13.1 The really juicy info, as always, appears in the sub-paragraphs. The Finished Goods Inventories surged by 11.1%, and the 6 Month Forward jumped nearly 20%. With Wall Street analysts focused on margins, the news here is what we expected.....prices paid for raw materials surged 9%, and wages and benefits up 4.4%, while new order volume fell 7.5%.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicator for the SPX remains on Buy, although it has moved to neutral. Another down day tomorrow and the signal may flip. As you know, we are monitoring a large number of negative divergences in our key timing indicators, but the momentum is still to the up side.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Thursday, December 23, 2010
The Day Before the Day Before Christmas
The slow, grinding, and mixed equity markets move to up side continues, with the Dow up 7 while the SPX is down 2. Transports are down as are the financials, while the Q's are unchanged. Oil is again above $90 at $90.56 and our energy recommendation, USO is trading at 38.66, up from our Buy point at 35.25.
Gold is down 12 bucks at $1.375, the Euro is again under 1.31 at 1.306, making our Sell signal at 132.42 look good. The Dollar is down a couple of ticks, with the recommended trade in the UUP up $.17.
The bond market is down a few ticks, and while Momentum in the TLT is still positive, the recommended trade is off $.80.
Momentum is still Bullish for the SPX with our SPY trade, recommended Buy at 120.5 is trading at 125.61
One of our favorite Trend indicators, the McClellan Summation Index, is still moving to the upside, likely buying us time before the next Momentum Change.
Best to your Trading!
Bill
Gold is down 12 bucks at $1.375, the Euro is again under 1.31 at 1.306, making our Sell signal at 132.42 look good. The Dollar is down a couple of ticks, with the recommended trade in the UUP up $.17.
The bond market is down a few ticks, and while Momentum in the TLT is still positive, the recommended trade is off $.80.
Momentum is still Bullish for the SPX with our SPY trade, recommended Buy at 120.5 is trading at 125.61
One of our favorite Trend indicators, the McClellan Summation Index, is still moving to the upside, likely buying us time before the next Momentum Change.
Best to your Trading!
Bill
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Santa Claus is Coming to Town!
Taking a look at world markets this morning, and I can't find a down tick anywhere!. Every equity market in the world is up this morning, in Europe and in Asia, South America and North America. Even the Bond market is up...(good call, Bill), and Gold was up until about 10 minutes ago. Dollar is down a tiny bit and Oil is down a couple of ticks. Looks like somebody forgot to tell these markets about correlations and stuff like that.
We are pleased with Our current Momentum Change signal for the SPX... it is currently another winner this year. But we don't want anyone to get too far away from their computer and access to this site....This signal will turn at some point.. after all, momentum changes on a regular basis. And we are monitoring a series of negative divergences.. in the NYSE 10 Day A/D, the percent of stocks above 50 day and 200 day moving average, the RSI, Put/Call ratio, Parker Sentiment, and Stocs are overbought on all time frame. The HSKAX closed last night at 15.01, its previous low. A tick lower will trigger another concern regarding an eminent decline.
We have no doubt that our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators will recognize the change when it occurs.... and we think the next change in Momentum will be very important to act upon.
Best to your trading!
Bill
We are pleased with Our current Momentum Change signal for the SPX... it is currently another winner this year. But we don't want anyone to get too far away from their computer and access to this site....This signal will turn at some point.. after all, momentum changes on a regular basis. And we are monitoring a series of negative divergences.. in the NYSE 10 Day A/D, the percent of stocks above 50 day and 200 day moving average, the RSI, Put/Call ratio, Parker Sentiment, and Stocs are overbought on all time frame. The HSKAX closed last night at 15.01, its previous low. A tick lower will trigger another concern regarding an eminent decline.
We have no doubt that our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators will recognize the change when it occurs.... and we think the next change in Momentum will be very important to act upon.
Best to your trading!
Bill
Monday, December 20, 2010
'Tis the Week Before Christmas
Bonds have finally found a bid, and our Momentum Change indicators have generated a new Buy Signal in the TLT at 93.90. This Buy signal will complete the Sell issued 10/8 at 103.50, for a 9.6 point profit.
The Euro Trust, FXE, generated a Sell signal last week on Dec 12/15 at 132.42. The Dollar produced a Buy signal 12/15 at 80.35. The UUP is the ETF that most accurately tracks the dollar, which was recommended at 23.10.
The fact that our momentum change indicators now have both the dollar and the bond market in up swings, suggests that investors are beginning to think it is time to move back into a more safety oriented strategy. If that is the case, we should begin to see momentum flip in the SPX. We will be watching carefully for a change from our current Buy recommendation.
The SPY momentum Buy signal of 12/1 is still in effect.
Mr Market is pretty quiet today.. bonds up a little, dollar up a little, Euro down a little, gold up a little and oil up a little... yawn. Probably getting ready for Santa.
Best to your trading.
Bill
The Euro Trust, FXE, generated a Sell signal last week on Dec 12/15 at 132.42. The Dollar produced a Buy signal 12/15 at 80.35. The UUP is the ETF that most accurately tracks the dollar, which was recommended at 23.10.
The fact that our momentum change indicators now have both the dollar and the bond market in up swings, suggests that investors are beginning to think it is time to move back into a more safety oriented strategy. If that is the case, we should begin to see momentum flip in the SPX. We will be watching carefully for a change from our current Buy recommendation.
The SPY momentum Buy signal of 12/1 is still in effect.
Mr Market is pretty quiet today.. bonds up a little, dollar up a little, Euro down a little, gold up a little and oil up a little... yawn. Probably getting ready for Santa.
Best to your trading.
Bill
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Dollar Rallies, but Bond can't Catch a Bid
I take a day off see what happens? Bond Down and the Dollar Up? Dogs and Cats together?
This morning the Dow is down 1 and the SPX is up 2. The Euro is down a little, and the dollar is up a little after a strong day yesterday. Gold is correcting, heading for the mid $1,130's, while silver is off another 2 1/2%. Oil is down $.65 to just under $88. But Bonds? Weak again today after getting crushed yesterday. The 10 year is down over 7 points from the November high, while the long bond is down over 16 points from the November high. In addition, while the yield curve is steepening, it is also flattening, with the 10s30 now at 106. That's a 55 basis point loss in a few weeks!
Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators have noted a change in the Dollar, offering a new Buy signal on the close 12/15 at 80.26 This market can be very volatile, experiencing the occasional whipsaw, so keep stops close.
Our Momentum Change indicator for the SPX is tracking sideways... we are watching carefully for any change, but as of today, the buy signal is still in effect.
This morning the Dow is down 1 and the SPX is up 2. The Euro is down a little, and the dollar is up a little after a strong day yesterday. Gold is correcting, heading for the mid $1,130's, while silver is off another 2 1/2%. Oil is down $.65 to just under $88. But Bonds? Weak again today after getting crushed yesterday. The 10 year is down over 7 points from the November high, while the long bond is down over 16 points from the November high. In addition, while the yield curve is steepening, it is also flattening, with the 10s30 now at 106. That's a 55 basis point loss in a few weeks!
Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators have noted a change in the Dollar, offering a new Buy signal on the close 12/15 at 80.26 This market can be very volatile, experiencing the occasional whipsaw, so keep stops close.
Our Momentum Change indicator for the SPX is tracking sideways... we are watching carefully for any change, but as of today, the buy signal is still in effect.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
How 'Bout Them Bonds?
Seems like I just talked about bond.. oh, yeah, I did last week. Well, the story seems to be the same.. bonds weak, the 10 year weaker.. The 10x30 spread continues to flatten, now at 113, down from 160 just a couple of weeks ago. The bond vigilantes are taking away the Bank's cookie jar. The 10 year is trading at 3.38% and the long bond at 4.51%.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators generated a Buy signal for the SPX on 12/1, and that signal is still in effect. In addition, our Momentum Change indicator for the 10 year note has been in Sell mode since 11/9, as has our Momentum Change indicator for the Dollar been in a Sell mode since 12/3 79.50. Our Momentum Change indicator for the Euro has an inverse signal to the Dollar, generating a Buy signal on 12/3 at 132.51.
While we a pleased with the SPX Buy signal generated on 12/1, we remain concerned about large, and in some cases growing negative divergences in some measures of internal market strength. For instance, the A/D 10 EMA continues a major divergence first noted in July, and the A/D daily cumulative has been showing a divergence for several days. The RSI for the SPX is in negative divergence, while Stocs, both fast and full, are flattening at the top. After some confusion yesterday, with the SPX and the Dow advancing, the Q's, the COMP, the DJT and the RUT were all down. And one of my favorites, the Parker Sentiment Indicator continues to show growing negative divergence. Not to even mention the historic Bullish Put/Call ratio.
But we will stay with the long side until the Momentum Changes.
Today, it seems all markets are "Risk Trade On-Full Steam Ahead". No need for no stink'n safe haven in the bonds or the dollar!
Best to your trading!
Bill
Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators generated a Buy signal for the SPX on 12/1, and that signal is still in effect. In addition, our Momentum Change indicator for the 10 year note has been in Sell mode since 11/9, as has our Momentum Change indicator for the Dollar been in a Sell mode since 12/3 79.50. Our Momentum Change indicator for the Euro has an inverse signal to the Dollar, generating a Buy signal on 12/3 at 132.51.
While we a pleased with the SPX Buy signal generated on 12/1, we remain concerned about large, and in some cases growing negative divergences in some measures of internal market strength. For instance, the A/D 10 EMA continues a major divergence first noted in July, and the A/D daily cumulative has been showing a divergence for several days. The RSI for the SPX is in negative divergence, while Stocs, both fast and full, are flattening at the top. After some confusion yesterday, with the SPX and the Dow advancing, the Q's, the COMP, the DJT and the RUT were all down. And one of my favorites, the Parker Sentiment Indicator continues to show growing negative divergence. Not to even mention the historic Bullish Put/Call ratio.
But we will stay with the long side until the Momentum Changes.
Today, it seems all markets are "Risk Trade On-Full Steam Ahead". No need for no stink'n safe haven in the bonds or the dollar!
Best to your trading!
Bill
Monday, December 13, 2010
Afternoon... Day Traders take Note
With the SPX and the DJI up all day,, the Dow transports, the COMP, QQQQ and the RUT have been off. The 10 year note and the long bond, after being off most of the day, have caught a bid and look to be closing the day on the plus side. Not the correlated trade the Fed was likely hoping for.
Although the Momentum Change Buy signal of 12/1 is still in effect, day traders should be aware that all may not be well for Tuesday.
Bill
Although the Momentum Change Buy signal of 12/1 is still in effect, day traders should be aware that all may not be well for Tuesday.
Bill
Monday Morning
It's beginning to look at lot like Christmas for equity investors......Mr. Market seems to want to go up! Morning call has the S&P up 35 points, and Gold is up $7.90 @ $1,392, Oil up 1.16 @ $88.95, the Euro is up @ 132.6 and the dollar is down @ 79.95. The bond market sends the 10 year note to 6 month highs at 3.37%, while the long bond trades at 4.45%.
Bloomberg has an interesting index posted this morning. It represents the Soybean, Wheat, Corn, Rice and Palm Oil futures markets, and it is indicating the possibility of major inflation in food prices over the next 2 years.Bloomberg notes that since the 50 day MA moved through the 100 day MA, prices have increased 50%. The 2 times previously this decade when this happened, the prices of foodstuffs increased 2 to 3 times over the next 2 years before peaking. Talk about Cost-Push!
Also over the weekend, that old corporate icon.. The Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Co, better know recently as A&P filed for bankruptcy, blaming leverage and margin pressures. Looks like margins for the grocery people are going to get crushed as costs increase as pricing power remains weak.
Our proprietary Momentum Change indicators generated a Buy signal at the close Wed., 12/1 and the gap open on Thursday did not give us an opportunity to recommend a new long position. We have been waiting for an entry point, but Mr market has not been very accommodating.....so we will watch this week for an opportunity to make a recommendation.
I the meantime, Our Momengum Change Buy signal is still in effect.
Bloomberg has an interesting index posted this morning. It represents the Soybean, Wheat, Corn, Rice and Palm Oil futures markets, and it is indicating the possibility of major inflation in food prices over the next 2 years.Bloomberg notes that since the 50 day MA moved through the 100 day MA, prices have increased 50%. The 2 times previously this decade when this happened, the prices of foodstuffs increased 2 to 3 times over the next 2 years before peaking. Talk about Cost-Push!
Also over the weekend, that old corporate icon.. The Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Co, better know recently as A&P filed for bankruptcy, blaming leverage and margin pressures. Looks like margins for the grocery people are going to get crushed as costs increase as pricing power remains weak.
Our proprietary Momentum Change indicators generated a Buy signal at the close Wed., 12/1 and the gap open on Thursday did not give us an opportunity to recommend a new long position. We have been waiting for an entry point, but Mr market has not been very accommodating.....so we will watch this week for an opportunity to make a recommendation.
I the meantime, Our Momengum Change Buy signal is still in effect.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
What is going on in the World of Bonds?
Long Govy Bonds were down almost 3 points yesterday and are down another 1/4 point this morning. Didn't The Bernak say that QE2 was a program that would maintain low rates by buying Govy Bonds? How is that working out? . This recent move in the Govy debt market, flattening the 10s30 spread is going to make it harder for banks to steal, er, make money on the spread.
Lots of talk in the TA universe about an outside reversal yesterday.. with the EW guys getting excited about the approaching end of Wave 5. If you look at our morning report Tuesday, we were suggesting that Tuesday could be the short term top. Our own timing tools have been pointing to a top this week.....we just might have seen it yesterday.
First call has the Dow down 2 points, while the 10 year is down another 1/2 point, bring the 10s30 spreads to 119 basis points, down from 168 just a couple of weeks ago. Gold and Silver and off the new highs reached yesterday, with Gold at $1,398 and Silver at $29.05. Oil is also retreating, coming off the $90 print and trading at $88.41. The dollar is generally stronger against most major currencies after the weakness earlier yesterday. The Euro is at 132.44 and the Dollar is again above 80 at 80.1
This should be an interesting day. Our own signals are mixed, with a Momentum Change to Buy last Wed, while our longer term timing tools have projected a short term top this week. Because of the Gap Open last week, we have not found an entry point for a long trade, so we will watching the action carefully for the next couple of days, to either find an entry point for new long positions, or a Momentum Change to a Sell signal.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
Lots of talk in the TA universe about an outside reversal yesterday.. with the EW guys getting excited about the approaching end of Wave 5. If you look at our morning report Tuesday, we were suggesting that Tuesday could be the short term top. Our own timing tools have been pointing to a top this week.....we just might have seen it yesterday.
First call has the Dow down 2 points, while the 10 year is down another 1/2 point, bring the 10s30 spreads to 119 basis points, down from 168 just a couple of weeks ago. Gold and Silver and off the new highs reached yesterday, with Gold at $1,398 and Silver at $29.05. Oil is also retreating, coming off the $90 print and trading at $88.41. The dollar is generally stronger against most major currencies after the weakness earlier yesterday. The Euro is at 132.44 and the Dollar is again above 80 at 80.1
This should be an interesting day. Our own signals are mixed, with a Momentum Change to Buy last Wed, while our longer term timing tools have projected a short term top this week. Because of the Gap Open last week, we have not found an entry point for a long trade, so we will watching the action carefully for the next couple of days, to either find an entry point for new long positions, or a Momentum Change to a Sell signal.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Tax Cut Extension and All is Well With the World
Another typical day expected on Wall Street. The tax cuts made in 2001 and 2003 were extended for another 2 years for everyone, while unemployment benefits were extended for 1 year, but 4 million unemployed workers will still see their benefits stopped. With unemployment reported for U3 at 9.8%, and U6 at 17%, the news that 4 million unemployed workers have lost benefits is greeted as good news, driving the equity commodity and PM markets higher.
Oil blasts past $90 to trade at $90.60. Gold trades at a new high at $1,428, Silver explodes through the $30 resistance to trade at $30.78, the Euro strengthens to 133.80 while the dollar is broadly lower against every major currency. And the Fed continues to monetize the national debt, yesterday purchasing the long bond issued just 1 month ago. The QE2 bond purchase program is so successful that the 10year is down over 1 point and the long bond is down almost 2 points. Not!
And the first call has the market up 80 Dow Points. Welcome to Wall Street!
Our proprietary Momentum Change indicators generated a new Buy signal last Wed, but the gap open, and subsequent market strength has not presented a buying opportunity. I hate it when a trade signal does not at the same time offer a tradeable entry opportunity.
We have several historically reliable timing tools that are suggesting a short term market top is to occur this week, perhaps even today... so we expect to either see a pull back shortly to present a buying opportunity or a Momentum Change signaling a new direction for the market. We are currently flat.
Best to your trading!
Bill
Oil blasts past $90 to trade at $90.60. Gold trades at a new high at $1,428, Silver explodes through the $30 resistance to trade at $30.78, the Euro strengthens to 133.80 while the dollar is broadly lower against every major currency. And the Fed continues to monetize the national debt, yesterday purchasing the long bond issued just 1 month ago. The QE2 bond purchase program is so successful that the 10year is down over 1 point and the long bond is down almost 2 points. Not!
And the first call has the market up 80 Dow Points. Welcome to Wall Street!
Our proprietary Momentum Change indicators generated a new Buy signal last Wed, but the gap open, and subsequent market strength has not presented a buying opportunity. I hate it when a trade signal does not at the same time offer a tradeable entry opportunity.
We have several historically reliable timing tools that are suggesting a short term market top is to occur this week, perhaps even today... so we expect to either see a pull back shortly to present a buying opportunity or a Momentum Change signaling a new direction for the market. We are currently flat.
Best to your trading!
Bill
Monday, December 6, 2010
Monday Morning
After a weak opening, stocks have rallied and the Dow is down 12 and SPX is down 2.38. Oil is getting close to $90 per barrel, trading at $89.40, and gold is again trading higher at $1,417. . Our timing indicators are pointing to a short term peak here in Gold, maybe peaking tomorrow. The Euro is at 1.328. while the dollar is again firming, trading at 79.80. Stories out of Europe express worry about the decision to be made tomorrow by the Irish budget makers.. how will, or how can, the government implement the tax increases and the budget cuts demanded by the ECB in return for the 86 billion Euros offered to save the Irish banks? Some very smart people think the decisions reached in Ireland will negatively impact the Euro, taking the Euro down by the year end to around 126.
Which of course will mean a strengthening of the dollar, and with increasingly bleak unemployment news undermining the recovery optimism in this economy, the strong dollar outlook is gaining traction. And with a strong dollar outlook, the equities markets may have a hard time delivering the Christmas rally that so many Bulls are expecting.
Our proprietary Momentum Change indicators generated a new Buy signal on Wed last week, but the gap open did not give us an opportunity to establish new positions, and we have not seen an opportunity yet this morning for a new trade. In addition, several of our most trusted timing tools are flashing a warning of an impending decline. We are looking for a pull back to either turn our momentum indicators Bearish and give us a new Sell signal, or to give us a buying opportunity and a confirmation of the recent Buy signal, If we sound a little confused, it is because we are a little confused. When we are confused, we like to stay out!
As experienced traders are aware, even the best signals sometimes force a whiplash experience.. luckily, we did not get a good entry point after the last Buy, so we will wait until either we get a Buy confirmation and an entry point, or we will get a new Sell signal. Right now, It could go either way, but we are increasingly concerned that Sovereign debt issues could be a triggering event for our own equity and debt markets.
Best Luck to your Trading.
Bill
Which of course will mean a strengthening of the dollar, and with increasingly bleak unemployment news undermining the recovery optimism in this economy, the strong dollar outlook is gaining traction. And with a strong dollar outlook, the equities markets may have a hard time delivering the Christmas rally that so many Bulls are expecting.
Our proprietary Momentum Change indicators generated a new Buy signal on Wed last week, but the gap open did not give us an opportunity to establish new positions, and we have not seen an opportunity yet this morning for a new trade. In addition, several of our most trusted timing tools are flashing a warning of an impending decline. We are looking for a pull back to either turn our momentum indicators Bearish and give us a new Sell signal, or to give us a buying opportunity and a confirmation of the recent Buy signal, If we sound a little confused, it is because we are a little confused. When we are confused, we like to stay out!
As experienced traders are aware, even the best signals sometimes force a whiplash experience.. luckily, we did not get a good entry point after the last Buy, so we will wait until either we get a Buy confirmation and an entry point, or we will get a new Sell signal. Right now, It could go either way, but we are increasingly concerned that Sovereign debt issues could be a triggering event for our own equity and debt markets.
Best Luck to your Trading.
Bill
Friday, December 3, 2010
Friday Morning
First call has the market down about 36 SPX, oil down slightly, Gold at $1400, The Euro back above 133 and the dollar again under 80. But the real fireworks is in the Labor Statistics report.... a big miss 39,000 new jobs after consensus estimates in the 150,000 range, and unemployment edges back up to 9.8%. (U-6 is over 17%), One of my favorite statistics is Labor Force Participation as a percent of population... stuck at 64.5%, the lowest level since the 60's. You know, before all those wives went to work.
All this good news just after our Momentum Change indicators signaled a new Buy Wed after the close. We also have some reliable timing indicators pointing to a short term top next week, so we do not have a trading recommendation currently. We are watching for an opportunity to get long on a pull back.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
All this good news just after our Momentum Change indicators signaled a new Buy Wed after the close. We also have some reliable timing indicators pointing to a short term top next week, so we do not have a trading recommendation currently. We are watching for an opportunity to get long on a pull back.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Market Opens higher, and continues higher
Mr. Market this morning is trading at 1216, up 10 points. The Dollar is down a couple of ticks, and the Euro is up a couple of ticks. Oil is down a few pennies and the Gold is up a couple of bucks. The 10 year US note is now trading over 3%..l this first time since the end of July. The daily chart shows a small H&S that could count to 3.5%,
All the Bulls are excited about the Vix Buy signal and the break out of resistance at 1202, and all the Bears are discouraged and about to throw in the towel, if they have not done so already. All though I am Bearish longer term, it is always fun to watch the locals run the stops.
Our Momentum Change indicator has signaled a new short term Bullish outlook as of the close last night. We do not have a recommendation for action with this new signal, although if we can get a pull back to around 1202, there may be a chance to scalp a few points.
We do have several timing tools that are pointing to an end of this rally next week, probably about mid week. So we will be looking for a pull back to the 1202 area to set up a Buy recommendation, and then we will be on the alert for a momentum peak next week.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
All the Bulls are excited about the Vix Buy signal and the break out of resistance at 1202, and all the Bears are discouraged and about to throw in the towel, if they have not done so already. All though I am Bearish longer term, it is always fun to watch the locals run the stops.
Our Momentum Change indicator has signaled a new short term Bullish outlook as of the close last night. We do not have a recommendation for action with this new signal, although if we can get a pull back to around 1202, there may be a chance to scalp a few points.
We do have several timing tools that are pointing to an end of this rally next week, probably about mid week. So we will be looking for a pull back to the 1202 area to set up a Buy recommendation, and then we will be on the alert for a momentum peak next week.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
Thursday Morning
Well, what do you know! Just as I suggested yesterday afternoon, my proprietary Momentum Change indicators have generated a new Buy signal, the first Buy signal since 9/1/2010.
It seems Mr. Market wants to rally.. question is, are new highs in the cards? However unlikely that may seem at the moment, it is of course possible. We use other timing tools to anticipate market turns, and our timing tools have been looking for a decline in the very near future. But the reason I worked to develop a Momentum Change model was so that I could get away from anticipating a change (and there are any number of hundreds of anticipative models, using hundreds of strategies), and instead being able to recognize change when it has begun.
.
Our Momentum Change model has successfully produced 76 total SPY points of profit this year in 12 trades, and lost 11 points when we got stopped out of our last trade. We will get long the SPY (or leveraged equivalents) today, and let you know at what price.
This could be a trade that only last a few days, so we will be watching very close.
Good Luck Trading.
It seems Mr. Market wants to rally.. question is, are new highs in the cards? However unlikely that may seem at the moment, it is of course possible. We use other timing tools to anticipate market turns, and our timing tools have been looking for a decline in the very near future. But the reason I worked to develop a Momentum Change model was so that I could get away from anticipating a change (and there are any number of hundreds of anticipative models, using hundreds of strategies), and instead being able to recognize change when it has begun.
.
Our Momentum Change model has successfully produced 76 total SPY points of profit this year in 12 trades, and lost 11 points when we got stopped out of our last trade. We will get long the SPY (or leveraged equivalents) today, and let you know at what price.
This could be a trade that only last a few days, so we will be watching very close.
Good Luck Trading.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Wed Afternoon
Dow up 261 as this is written..SPX up 26.11, Dollar down 30 ticks, Euro up a bunch, Gold up $4.20 and Oil up to $86.74. Looks like the relationships we have come to love. Problem is, the Equity markets are much stronger than any of of the other correlated markets.
So take your pick.... POMO day, US to support ECB plans (but not finance them... humm?), and GS used to not like the economy, but now likes the economy and told all their clients they are now Bullish and they should buy stock.
Our Momentum Change indicators are nearing a Buy signal, but as of this moment are still in Sell mode. It is possible this can change by the close.. we will post our observations after the close.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
So take your pick.... POMO day, US to support ECB plans (but not finance them... humm?), and GS used to not like the economy, but now likes the economy and told all their clients they are now Bullish and they should buy stock.
Our Momentum Change indicators are nearing a Buy signal, but as of this moment are still in Sell mode. It is possible this can change by the close.. we will post our observations after the close.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
Wed Morning... POMO Ramp? Vix Buy Signal?
I love it when a plan comes together.. if anyone acted on our suggestion Monday that a very short term Buy in the SPX at 1176 would be likely to see a a bounce to around 1200, just send me good thoughts! Now, it is time to unload that position.. it has given us all I think I want.
Tuesday on the close, the Vix generated a Buy signal, closing back inside the upper Bollinger. I think we also got a record in the Put/Call ratio....the "Smart Money Guys" would say that was a Bear signal. Ya' pays your money and ya' takes your chances!
For us, we still have our last Sell signal confirmation 11/12 at 1202.. and until we get a new Buy signal, we will stay with that position. While our Momentum Change signal is still signaling Sell, our Market Timing tools are suggesting that we should see a significant market peak next week, with a decline to follow that can be exciting. Those same timing tools also suggest an interruption in the advance of Gold and Silver markets next week.
No changes in any of our momentum signals at this time... but we will watch this activity today for any clues to a change.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
Tuesday on the close, the Vix generated a Buy signal, closing back inside the upper Bollinger. I think we also got a record in the Put/Call ratio....the "Smart Money Guys" would say that was a Bear signal. Ya' pays your money and ya' takes your chances!
For us, we still have our last Sell signal confirmation 11/12 at 1202.. and until we get a new Buy signal, we will stay with that position. While our Momentum Change signal is still signaling Sell, our Market Timing tools are suggesting that we should see a significant market peak next week, with a decline to follow that can be exciting. Those same timing tools also suggest an interruption in the advance of Gold and Silver markets next week.
No changes in any of our momentum signals at this time... but we will watch this activity today for any clues to a change.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
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