After a weak opening, the market rallied through the day, getting slightly above the previous close. But got hit towards the end of trading, closing down 46 at 1180.58. Oil, after being off a little for most of the day, also got hit toward the close, ending down over $2.00 at $83..21 Gold closed up $20.70 at $1386.70 and the Dollar closed higher again at 81.30, while the Euro closed down hard, under 130 at 129.80. Does anyone remember when the Euro was at 142 and GS was talking about the Euro going to 155? I think they still are.
Our Momentum Change indicator generated a Sell signal for the Euro 11/8 at 139.80 and a Buy signal in the Dollar 11/05 at 76.25
Our Momentum Change indicator remains on a Sell. Very short term traders who might have gotten long yesterday, looking for scalp a few SPX points, should maintain their stop at 1175.50. We expect the fireworks on the down side to commence next week, but be aware that other indicators are warning of an impending decline that could start at any time. Only day traders, with very short term horizons should be long at this point.. the majority of trading money should be short, respecting our Sell signal confirmation 11/12 at SPX 1202 should maintain short and short equivalent positions.
Good Luck Trading.
Bill
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Tuesday Mid-Day
The Market opened lower on continued fears re: the UCU and the viability of the Euro. The dollar is slightly higer, the Euro is down, trading briefly under 130. Oil is up 80 cents and Gold is up $21. For those paying attention, the recent relationship between Gold and the Dollar has broken down, but Dollar strength continues to signal weak a Equities market. It should be noted that our propriety Momentum Change indicator generated a Buy signal for the Dollar on 11/05 at 76.25. The Dollar is currently trading 81.03
The press is full of comment this morning about weakness in Copper, and how the Copper index has been a leading indicator of Equity Market behavior. Our Momentum Change indicators generated a Sell signal in Copper 11/16 at 390. Copper is trading today at 381.
Our Momentum Change indicator for the Equities market continues in the Sell mode. Several additional technical indicators are flashing warnings of impending decline in the near term. We suspect that decline will manifest the week of 12/06 and it should be exciting. Mean time, the market is noodling around between 1180 and 1203 on the SPX. It may be possible to catch a small bounce in the SPX this week, however, anyone playing that day trade game needs to keep stops very close.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
The press is full of comment this morning about weakness in Copper, and how the Copper index has been a leading indicator of Equity Market behavior. Our Momentum Change indicators generated a Sell signal in Copper 11/16 at 390. Copper is trading today at 381.
Our Momentum Change indicator for the Equities market continues in the Sell mode. Several additional technical indicators are flashing warnings of impending decline in the near term. We suspect that decline will manifest the week of 12/06 and it should be exciting. Mean time, the market is noodling around between 1180 and 1203 on the SPX. It may be possible to catch a small bounce in the SPX this week, however, anyone playing that day trade game needs to keep stops very close.
Good Luck Trading!
Bill
Monday, November 29, 2010
Very short term opportunity
with the SPX currently at 1176.54, and a series of daily failed auctions, it appears the market is setting up a rally that should then set up the selling wave we expected next week. Much of our work seems to be anticipating a sell-off that could take the SPX down to the 1100 level.
While it looks like the SPX is setting up a rally, our momentum indicators are still on a sell signal...We do not have a new Buy signal. We do not expect the rally to carry above 1202. If you enter the long side for a very short term bounce, use a very tight stop at 1175.5
This idea is just for very short term traders.. looking to scalp 20 or 30 SPX points.
Bill
While it looks like the SPX is setting up a rally, our momentum indicators are still on a sell signal...We do not have a new Buy signal. We do not expect the rally to carry above 1202. If you enter the long side for a very short term bounce, use a very tight stop at 1175.5
This idea is just for very short term traders.. looking to scalp 20 or 30 SPX points.
Bill
Indicators still on Sell Signal
We currently are flat, having gotten stopped out of the TZA trade last week at $19.78 with a 72 cent loss.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators are still flashing Sell for the equity markets. The SPX Sell signal has been confirmed 11/12, 11/19, and again 11/26. We are looking for a new place to re-enter the short side.
The Momentum Change indicators that generated a Sell signal for the Euro 11/8 at 139.20 is still in effect, and the Buy signal for the US Dollar first issued 11/5 at 76.50 is still in effect. Activity in our domestic equity markets continue respond the FX market.. with Dollar strength and Euro weakness promoting equity weakness.
Om addition to our Momentum Change indicators, there are significant negative divergences in the A/D 10 day EMA, the McClellan and our proprietary sentiment indicator.
Another indicator that has had very good record of recognizing approaching significant decline in the equity market is a Systemic Risk Quant fund, HSKAX, that flashed a warning 11/22 that a breakdown was imminent with in 1 to 5 days.
Traders should maintain existing short positions, and we will look for an opportunity to recommend another trade on the short side.
Bill
Our Proprietary Momentum Change Indicators are still flashing Sell for the equity markets. The SPX Sell signal has been confirmed 11/12, 11/19, and again 11/26. We are looking for a new place to re-enter the short side.
The Momentum Change indicators that generated a Sell signal for the Euro 11/8 at 139.20 is still in effect, and the Buy signal for the US Dollar first issued 11/5 at 76.50 is still in effect. Activity in our domestic equity markets continue respond the FX market.. with Dollar strength and Euro weakness promoting equity weakness.
Om addition to our Momentum Change indicators, there are significant negative divergences in the A/D 10 day EMA, the McClellan and our proprietary sentiment indicator.
Another indicator that has had very good record of recognizing approaching significant decline in the equity market is a Systemic Risk Quant fund, HSKAX, that flashed a warning 11/22 that a breakdown was imminent with in 1 to 5 days.
Traders should maintain existing short positions, and we will look for an opportunity to recommend another trade on the short side.
Bill
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Stopped out on the TZA trade
We were stopped out this morning at $19.78 on the TZA trade initiated 11/16 at $20.50 for a loss of 72 cents per share.
Our Momentum Change indicators are still on a Sell signal, but the trade was going against us. We will go into the long weekend flat, and look next week for another opportunity. It is possible our indicators will signal a momentum change to the Buy side, and if so, we will notify you immediately. But it is our expectation that we will still be working with a Sell signal early next week.
Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday!
Bill
Our Momentum Change indicators are still on a Sell signal, but the trade was going against us. We will go into the long weekend flat, and look next week for another opportunity. It is possible our indicators will signal a momentum change to the Buy side, and if so, we will notify you immediately. But it is our expectation that we will still be working with a Sell signal early next week.
Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday!
Bill
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
TZA Stop Loss still at $19.78,
Out trade 11/16, when our Momentum Change signal was confirmed, was entered at $20.50, with a stop loss at $19.78. That stop loss is still active.
The morning call is for the market to open lower on news of new troubles between the Korea's. It is reported the NK shelled an Island considered to belong to SK, killing 2 soldiers and wounding civilians, also causing considerable property damage. This is the second attack on SK in the past year, following the sinking of an SK ship. The ship sinking was unanswered by the SK's, so it will be very critical how SK responds to this new attack.
News out of the EU continues to be driven by Sovereign debt concerns. The bail out of Ireland is still not a done deal, and now Spanish debt is being targeted, with spreads reaching new record highs overnight. Portugal is also a concern.
Our Momentum Changes signal is still on Sell, with a near term target around 1165. We expect some kind of rally attempt from that level, and we will watch for a momentum change. In the mean time, the Bears likely lhave the upper hand.
The morning call is for the market to open lower on news of new troubles between the Korea's. It is reported the NK shelled an Island considered to belong to SK, killing 2 soldiers and wounding civilians, also causing considerable property damage. This is the second attack on SK in the past year, following the sinking of an SK ship. The ship sinking was unanswered by the SK's, so it will be very critical how SK responds to this new attack.
News out of the EU continues to be driven by Sovereign debt concerns. The bail out of Ireland is still not a done deal, and now Spanish debt is being targeted, with spreads reaching new record highs overnight. Portugal is also a concern.
Our Momentum Changes signal is still on Sell, with a near term target around 1165. We expect some kind of rally attempt from that level, and we will watch for a momentum change. In the mean time, the Bears likely lhave the upper hand.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Sell Signal; still active
The Momentum Change recognized 11/16 as a Sell Signal is still in effect, with an initial target of 1165.
Mr Market is recognizing a problem still exists in Europe, with the ECB deal offered to Ireland not yet done. And Portugal looking to be the next in line for more Euro credits.
In the domestic market, the SPX is trying to get back into its down trend channel first created 11/16. With any luck, today will be the day the Bears resume their control. At least for the short term.
It is possible for another rally to develop before the substantial decline we look for in mid December, but it is unlikely at this point that any short term rally will generate a momentum change sufficient to generate a Buy Signal.
Bill
Mr Market is recognizing a problem still exists in Europe, with the ECB deal offered to Ireland not yet done. And Portugal looking to be the next in line for more Euro credits.
In the domestic market, the SPX is trying to get back into its down trend channel first created 11/16. With any luck, today will be the day the Bears resume their control. At least for the short term.
It is possible for another rally to develop before the substantial decline we look for in mid December, but it is unlikely at this point that any short term rally will generate a momentum change sufficient to generate a Buy Signal.
Bill
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Down Trend Resistance Broken
Markets are strongly higher, the the DIA and the SPY now above the newly formed down trend channel resistance.
GM is trading about 2 points above the offer, and Ireland is rumored to be leaning toward taking on the ECU bailout....Seems the Irish have also subscribed to the theory that the solution to too much debt is to add additional debt.
So in addition to exporting software and food grains and drugs, we are effectively exporting the idea that More Debt is the solution to Too Much Debt.
Bill
GM is trading about 2 points above the offer, and Ireland is rumored to be leaning toward taking on the ECU bailout....Seems the Irish have also subscribed to the theory that the solution to too much debt is to add additional debt.
So in addition to exporting software and food grains and drugs, we are effectively exporting the idea that More Debt is the solution to Too Much Debt.
Bill
GM IPO a Big Hit
It looks like Wall Street can't wait to get their hands on Chevy's and Caddy's. The GM IPO coming today reportedly at $33 per share is now reported to be oversubscribed. Morning call has the Dow up 100 pre-open.. must mean that what is good for GM is good for America!
The higher open still leaves the indexes with in their newly formed down trend channel....Pre-open excitement should wane by 10:30. and we should get a better idea where the day is headed.
The higher open still leaves the indexes with in their newly formed down trend channel....Pre-open excitement should wane by 10:30. and we should get a better idea where the day is headed.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Tuesday around noon, the support level of the recently formed down trend channel for the SPX was broken, on the daily, hourly and 10 minute charts. The decline has accelerated and at 1:00pm the Dow was now 200.
Lots of concern in Europe re: the Irish banking crises. The European bankers want Ireland to accept additional bail out money, of course to protect the big European banks from taking a big hit if Ireland defaults. But it is not yet clear that Ireland is willing to take on additional debt. I guess the Irish have been paying attention to events in Iceland and are not certain they want to take the European Central banks want them take.
Bill
Lots of concern in Europe re: the Irish banking crises. The European bankers want Ireland to accept additional bail out money, of course to protect the big European banks from taking a big hit if Ireland defaults. But it is not yet clear that Ireland is willing to take on additional debt. I guess the Irish have been paying attention to events in Iceland and are not certain they want to take the European Central banks want them take.
Bill
Friday Sell Signal
Eartly Friday afternoon, 11/12, our propriety momentum Change indicators flash Sell signals for the SPX and the DOW, also for the Dow Transports, the Nasdaq and the Euro. Buy Signal for the US dollar was also confirmed.
First objective for this move is the .382 Fib retracement at 1155 on the SPX, and 115.60 on the SPY.
First objective for this move is the .382 Fib retracement at 1155 on the SPX, and 115.60 on the SPY.
Friday, November 12, 2010
No Sell Signal yet
The sell signal first generated by our Proprietary Momentum guide on 10/19, and confirmed 10/26 and 10/27 is still in effect. We have received no interim buy signal, so the Sell Signal is still in effect. However, good trading practice requires Stop Loss orders, and we got stopped out 11/1 with a 1 1/2 point loss.
We have been waiting for a confirmation of our original Sell Signal to re-enter the market, but have not yet gotten a confirmation. However, we are very close and if the market is weak today, we may well get a Sell confirmation this afternoon.
Make it a Profitable Day!
Bill
We have been waiting for a confirmation of our original Sell Signal to re-enter the market, but have not yet gotten a confirmation. However, we are very close and if the market is weak today, we may well get a Sell confirmation this afternoon.
Make it a Profitable Day!
Bill
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