TGIF

After being higher overnight, the market has opened flat, and at 10:00am the Dow is down 15, the SPX down 2.75 and all the major indexes are also off less than 0.50%.  It is likely we will see a consolidation day today after the trend day yesterday. The media is focused on the positive news on the labor front as being the spark behind yesterdays advance, with short covering providing the fuel.  Expectations this morning were for a NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) print at 296,000, with rumors running as high as 250,000, but came in lower at 292.000.  Unemployment was also nominally lower, printing 8.9%.  However, the picture is a little less bright when it is considered that the Labor Force Participation rate is at 25 year lows, printing for the second month at 64.2%  If the LFP were at historic trend, 200 basis points higher, the unemployment rate would 11.6%.  Included in the NFP report are 118,000 "birth/death" new jobs.....another one of those "let's guess" estimates about unmeasured small business additions to new jobs.

In the mean time, violence in Libya seems again to be increasing, with reports of oil wells near Benghazi being on fire,  the Kingdom of Saud is experiencing increased unrest, and Iranian protester take to the streets again.  Oil has traded higher over night, and WT crude is above 103, and Brent above 116.  Gold is again on the move, trading higher at 1427 and Silver is higher, trading at 34.65.  The rest of the commodity complex is mostly higher.  Bonds are also higher, with the 10 year Note trading at 3.512% and the Bond trading at 4.608%.  The Euro is about to hit 140, trading 3.995 and the Dollar is continuing its retreat, trading 76.38.

Since I started writing, the stock market has retreated, with the Dow now now 74 and the SPX down 8.65.  The pattern for the equities market since Feb 21 continues to be lower highs and higher lows.  Mr Market will find himself in a corner, where he will have to make up his mind.

The Momentum Change indicators continue to be Bearish, and little change yesterday to the numbers.  Depending on action today, we may have new trade recommendations this afternoon.



Best To Your Trading!

Bill