Monday Mid-Day

The Dow and all major indexes are falling again this morning, with the Dow at 12:30pm off 135, the SPX off 16.20 and the rest of the indexes all off over 1%, with the transports leading on the way down, off 2.20%.  I have updated the stop loss prices for the second time this date and the new stop loss prices are posted at the right.  It is clear that the markets are experiencing a "Risk Off" moment.. I just wish that Risk Off trade would demonstrate its regard for the U.S. Dollar, which is trading down at 76.51, down 0.35% in the day.

I won't bore you with additional comments on the disaster in Japan, only to express my concern for all the people directly effected by the events of the past nearly 4 days.  The latest news I have seen is commenting on the apparently misleading information being presented by the Japanese government... and the recent reports that all of the 5 out of 8 generators in service at the time of the earthquake are now in some stage of core failure and the complete lack of options for the operators.  It appears we are not even at the end of the beginning of this disaster.

The news out of the MENA region continues to deteriorate, with news of the Sauds sending troops into Bahrain.  Do we need to be reminded that the Gwahar 5,000,000 bpd oil field is only 60 miles from Bahrain?  The markets are apparently remembering inter-connectedness of the world economy.  Charles Hughes Smith has an interesting post at OfTwoMinds.com that details some of that inter-connectedness.

Oil started the day trading just above $98, and has rallied to 100.45, while Gold is higher at 1429 and Silver is back above 36.  The Euro is off a little, trading at 1.395 and the Dollar is very weak, off 0.35% at 76.51.  The balance of the commodity complex is off with the exception of Rough Rice,  which is up 3% at 13.7  The 10 Year Note is up, trading at 3.343% and the Bond is up, trading at 4.532%

The Momentum Changes indicator is still Bearish, although I am not recommending new positions.  I have updated that stop loss prices for open trades again and they are posted at the right.  Some of the cycle work that I follow is looking for a cycle low late this week or early next week, so I want to make the point that this February top is not likely The Top.  That same cycle work and and several timing tools are not looking for The Top until late May.

Best To Your Trading!

Bill