Commodities lead the way, Part Duex!

Commodities are doing it again, only they are doing it the other way. (Does that sound a little off-color?)  After leading the markets higher yesterday, the commodities are leading the way to the down side.  Oil is off 4.55 at 99.33 and Brent is off 4.82 at 112.82.  Gold is off 15.90 at 1501 and Silver is again lower, off 3.35 at 35.13, and Copper continues it losing ways, trading 3.91  The rest of the commodity complex is lower, with the single exception of Feed Cattle.

The Euro has fallen out of bed, trading at 1.417, off nearly 900 ticks in 1 week.  The Dollar, is now trying to break out to the upside, trading right on the down trend resistance line at 75.40.  If the Dollar can break higher with authority, we can wave bye-bye to the March 09 rally.

The Bond market continues to demonstrate that the investor class is concerned about deflation going forward, at least for the short term, with the 10 year Note trading up 1/2 at 3.16%, and the long Bond trading nearly 1 point higher at 4.30%.  It is being reported that the 10 year auction priced at 3.21%... someone please tell me how that happened, with the Note in the market trading at 3.16.

The Dow is up 170 as this is written, nearly the worst levels of the day, and the SPX is off 16.90.  So, here we are again... violent swings in the indexes that make any pretense of known which way the market is leaning nearly meaningless.  I accept that the Proprietary Momentum Change indicators have little value in this kind of very choppy market........I find I am leaning on my old chart reading skills to give me some confidence about what positions to take, and those old skills keep telling me to "hold on to the cash.. this will sort its self out shortly".    As my old friend and manager, Captain Gatorbait, used to say... Bill, you do not have to be in the market every day.  There will be a new trade coming shortly"

Market timing tools and cycle studies are telling me that a major top is near... and they are also telling me that a push higher is possible, if not necessarily probable.  My Killer Instinct keeps telling me.. :"Do Something"  while my aged and wise old gray-haired rational head keeps telling me...."Naahh!"

One of the reasons I am staying out of the market is the realization that stop loss orders are nearly useless when these reverses are occurring with big gap opens.. guaranteeing that a bad gamble will feel a lot worse when I get the fill.

Best To Your Trading!

Bill