Looks like all the traders have left the building! Equity markets are sleeping right around the "unchanged" level, while Gold is up $7 and Oil is taking a breather, trading under $90 at 89.33. The Euro is strong, trading at 1.34, while the Dollar continues decline, trading at 79.51. The action today is in the bond markets, with bonds strong, with the long bond at 4.38% and the 10 year at 3.32%. Our Momentum Change indicators on Wed signaled a new direct for the bond, with a new Buy for the TLT at 92.0.
With oil down, gold up, dollar down, bond up.......looks like the correlations continue to by absent.
Our Momentum Change indicators are back flashing "look at me" signals in the SPY and the Oil... but both are still holding the Buy signals as of this morning. USO hourly chart is showing a series of failed auctions at 38, indicating a rally from this level. If we get new signals this afternoon, we will post it prior to the close.
Happy New Year... and Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Day Before New Years Eve
Just when everything is going our way, things change. Oh, that's right.. this is Momentum Changes!
We have a Momentum Change this morning in the FXE (Euro).. this is a volatile market as we all know, and change can happen quickly.. but we can react quickly! Momentum has changed to the upside, and we closed the Short Sale of 12/20 at 132.42 this morning, closing the short at 132.53 with $0.21 loss, and went long at 132.53. We also closed the UUP long, entered 12/15 at 23.10, with a Sell at 23.05, losing $0.05. We do not have a recommendation at this time, although the Dollar index is now in an uptrend.
With the new weakness in the Dollar, our USO and SPY trades should continue up. The financials and our XLF trade are still in an uptrend.
Economic news headlines this morning were good, with Seasonally Adjusted new apps for unemployment declining to 388,000, down from adjusted 422,000 last week. However, unadjusted reported at 521,384, which was higher than last weeks 497,000. The Glass-is-always-half full Chicago PMI surged to new highs, highest since 1988, printing at 68.6 and well above estimates of 61. This report is generally considered an outlier, and the market promptly ignored it, now down 12 Dow points on the day.
Equity market indexes are down across the board, although nothing dramatic. Bonds are up the second day in a row, Dollar is down, Euro is up, Oil down and Gold is down. Correlations again off the beam. Am I the only one who feels the markets have gone to sleep the past couple of weeks?
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
We have a Momentum Change this morning in the FXE (Euro).. this is a volatile market as we all know, and change can happen quickly.. but we can react quickly! Momentum has changed to the upside, and we closed the Short Sale of 12/20 at 132.42 this morning, closing the short at 132.53 with $0.21 loss, and went long at 132.53. We also closed the UUP long, entered 12/15 at 23.10, with a Sell at 23.05, losing $0.05. We do not have a recommendation at this time, although the Dollar index is now in an uptrend.
With the new weakness in the Dollar, our USO and SPY trades should continue up. The financials and our XLF trade are still in an uptrend.
Economic news headlines this morning were good, with Seasonally Adjusted new apps for unemployment declining to 388,000, down from adjusted 422,000 last week. However, unadjusted reported at 521,384, which was higher than last weeks 497,000. The Glass-is-always-half full Chicago PMI surged to new highs, highest since 1988, printing at 68.6 and well above estimates of 61. This report is generally considered an outlier, and the market promptly ignored it, now down 12 Dow points on the day.
Equity market indexes are down across the board, although nothing dramatic. Bonds are up the second day in a row, Dollar is down, Euro is up, Oil down and Gold is down. Correlations again off the beam. Am I the only one who feels the markets have gone to sleep the past couple of weeks?
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Santa Keeps on Bringing the Gifts!
The equities markets are higher this morning, with all major indexes on the plus side, with the exception of the financial, which are off a couple of ticks. The Dow continues to be the strongest, up .35% vs .25% for the SPX The bond market continues to take serious hits, with the long bond down again, trading at 4.54%, and the 10 year down, trading at 3.49% 10s30 spread continues to flatten, now at 105 bibs. However, we notice the decline in bonds is losing strength, and may be nearing a bounce... but not quite yet. Oil is at 91.18, off .31 and Gold is at 1,407.3, up 1.70. The Euro is up a couple of ticks at 1.31, while the Dollar 80.13, down .18. The Yen continues to strengthen against the Euro and the Dollar.
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators continue to hold the SPY Buy signal, and after 2 days of teetering, is today strengthening. It is looking like the Year End rally will hold through the New Year. Our Sell signal in the FXE remains in effect, although the trend is losing strength. Our Buy signal in the Dollar, trading the UUP, is beginning to look a little ragged, and we are watching closely for a momentum change. The down trend seems to be strengthening. Our Buy signal for Oil continue strong, with the trend strengthening, however price is nearing trend resistance line. Price maybe in for a little back and forth shortly.
Enjoy the Year End rally, and get ready for the fireworks next year. We will be ready to trade either side of the market with the same enthusiasm.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
Our Proprietary Momentum Change indicators continue to hold the SPY Buy signal, and after 2 days of teetering, is today strengthening. It is looking like the Year End rally will hold through the New Year. Our Sell signal in the FXE remains in effect, although the trend is losing strength. Our Buy signal in the Dollar, trading the UUP, is beginning to look a little ragged, and we are watching closely for a momentum change. The down trend seems to be strengthening. Our Buy signal for Oil continue strong, with the trend strengthening, however price is nearing trend resistance line. Price maybe in for a little back and forth shortly.
Enjoy the Year End rally, and get ready for the fireworks next year. We will be ready to trade either side of the market with the same enthusiasm.
Best to Your Trading!
Bill
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